The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has adjusted export projections for the current season upward, after the latest round of variety focus group meetings. The organisation said 188.2 million 15kg cartons are expected to be packed for export, a 10% increase from the 171 million cartons initially projected.
Exceptional demand in overseas markets for processing grade juicing oranges and juicing lemons accounts for a large part of the increase.
“Favourable growing and weather conditions, as well as enhanced production efficiencies, also contributed to the increase. Additionally, stronger demand for fruit in the Northern hemisphere at the beginning of our season contributed to significant volumes of especially lemons and oranges being moved earlier,” the CGA said in a statement.
Chief executive officer of the CGA, Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, explained that Valencia orange figures are largely in line with the five-year average, and the total volumes fit within the CGA’s long-term growth strategy.
Retaining and expanding markets
“The sector continues to work closely with its partners to ensure steady and stable delivery to all markets. Industry leaders remain focused on delivering a successful season.
“Volumes alone are, of course, just one metric with which to gauge an industry. Apart from trade turmoil, rising input costs and the EU’s continued unscientific and unfair plant health trade barriers are also impacting our growers. With the projection of 188.2 million cartons for 2025, our industry is on course to achieve our targets.
“But for jobs to be created out of these volumes, the new citrus must find markets. Therefore, market retention and expansion are essential. Not improving market access across the board, including the US, China, India, Japan, and others, will result in a missed opportunity for serious job creation,” he said.
Ntshabele said they are hopeful that the South African government will continue to assist with expanding market access in the future.
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“It is estimated that 29.6 million 15kg cartons of Navel oranges will be packed for export, an 11% increase from the original estimate of 26.1 million cartons. The projection for Valencia oranges has also been revised upward by 4%, from the initial 52 million 15kg cartons to 54.5 million cartons.
“The peak of the Navel season has passed, and Valencia packing is expected to continue before tapering down towards the end of August and into the first half of September,” he added.
Ntshabele said the CGA projection for lemons also increased to 39.6 million 15kg cartons on the back of a larger third lemon set and strong demand across most markets.
“Growers and exporters should keep in touch with the markets to ensure the right quantities and quality product is arriving into the market. The quality of the fruit is great. The whole season has been about two weeks earlier than in 2024, allowing for a smooth transition back to Northern hemisphere supply,” he continued.
Impact of US tariffs
Regarding the 30% US tariff imposed on South African citrus from 7 August, Ntshabele said the Southern Hemisphere’s citrus was well passed its peak, and local citrus growers have managed to accelerate shipments to the US ahead of the deadline, which has lessened some of the effects of the tariff on the current season’s US exports.
Meanwhile, Paul Hardman, chief operating officer of the CGA, said in general, the ports have been much more efficient in 2025, in part due to added equipment and new management strategies.
“This has helped get fruit out a little earlier than usual. However, with a larger projected crop, it will be important to keep the fruit moving through the ports swiftly over the next three weeks,” he said.
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