South Africa’s farmers need to urgently expand their export horizons as global trade patterns shift and competition heats up, warn leading agricultural economists Wandile Sihlobo and Dr Tinashe Kapuya, both of Agbiz.
In a new analysis, they argue that recent developments in global politics, particularly the policies pursued by former US president Donald Trump, have disrupted long-standing trade systems. This is having direct consequences for countries like South Africa, whose agricultural sectors rely heavily on export markets for growth.
They say many analysts and observers that have been following global politics have come to a consensus around a few sets of facts.
“The Trump administration is seeking to re-set the global trading landscape through trade policy interventions that could fundamentally re-shape investments, trade patterns, and the global economy at large,” Sihlobo and Kapuya argue.
They further note that a major consequence of these changes is the retreat of the United States from its role as a global economic leader. This, they say, “effectively diminishes its role from a global to a regional super power, and effectively underscoring the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world.”
For South Africa, which has built much of its recent economic strategy on growing agricultural exports, the shift introduces a new layer of uncertainty and risk. Sihlobo and Kapuya warn that it demands quick action to protect the country’s economic interests.
“From a South African perspective, the upheaval of the global geo-economic and political landscape creates heightened uncertainty, which demands a set of interventions that can effectively reduce risk, and preserve economic interests, and continue to grow the country’s economy through its export-led strategy,” they caution.
A call for export diversification
Although the conversation about finding new export markets is not new, recent events have added a sense of urgency.
Sihlobo and Kapuya point out that the need for export expansion was already driven by the projected growth of South Africa’s agricultural output, particularly in fruits, red meat, wine, and grain production.
“Strategically, diversifying exports across different markets helps the sector to reduce the risk,” they explain, adding that relying too heavily on any single market, such as the US or the EU, could expose the sector to major shocks.
The economists highlight that even before fears of higher US tariffs emerged, South Africa had begun seeking broader export opportunities. However, given the current global uncertainties, they argue that a much more aggressive and coordinated push is needed.
Three pillars for a new trade strategy
Sihlobo and Kapuya propose a long-term approach to trade policy that goes beyond simply reacting to tariff threats. They argue that the strategy should be built on three key pillars.
Firstly, they call for stronger social partnerships and public-private partnerships (PPPs). In their view, collaboration between government and the private sector will be critical in implementing existing frameworks like the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan (AAMP).
“In previous policy discussions we have argued for PPPs as a means to ensure the implementation of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan (AAMP). Export diversification happens to be one of the AAMP’s focus areas, and it is therefore critical to extend the social compact notion towards deepening and strengthening export diversification efforts,” they write.
Secondly, they stress the importance of identifying and prioritising key markets for expansion, particularly in China, the Middle East, and the Far East, alongside maintaining and expanding market access to the US.
Thirdly, they argue that South Africa should focus on strengthening regional trade blocs, especially the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), as a way to negotiate better terms for market access.
“Consolidating and strengthening negotiation for market access through regional blocs, in particular, the Southern African Customs Union,” is key to ensuring that South Africa retains its competitive edge, they add.
Agriculture’s window of opportunity
Despite the challenges, Sihlobo and Kapuya are optimistic that South African agriculture can thrive if the right strategies are implemented quickly.
They point out that South Africa’s agricultural sector has shown strong growth potential in recent years, driven by improvements in productivity, investment, and technology. This means that the country is well-positioned to take advantage of growing demand for agricultural products worldwide – but only if it can secure diversified market access.
“The motivation for export expansion was premised on the projected growth of South Africa’s agricultural output, particularly in fruits, red meat, wine and grain production, all of which will require markets that can absorb expanding exports,” they note.
For emerging farmers and agripreneurs, especially, tapping into new international markets could offer much-needed opportunities to scale up and build sustainable businesses.
At the same time, the economists caution that without a deliberate and coordinated effort to expand market access, South African farmers could find themselves squeezed by protectionist policies abroad, particularly as major economies like the US and EU face rising domestic political pressures.
Looking ahead
South Africa’s agricultural leaders, including government policymakers, exporters, and farmers’ organisations, will need to work more closely together to open new doors.
According to Sihlobo and Kapuya, success will depend not only on identifying new markets, but also on ensuring that South African products meet the standards and expectations of increasingly sophisticated global consumers.
In a world where economic power is shifting and traditional trade alliances are being renegotiated, the message from Agbiz is clear: South African agriculture must be proactive, not reactive.
As they conclude in their analysis, “export diversification is not a new conversation,” but in today’s world, it is more important than ever.
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