The global grain and oilseed markets have been shaped by numerous disruptive forces in recent years. From erratic weather patterns in key production regions to the turmoil of the Black Sea conflict. Shifts in Chinese demand have also played a notable role in giving markets directions. These factors have all contributed to large price swings.
In 2023 and 2024, global grain and oilseed prices followed a downward trend. This was due to “ample global cereal and oilseed production, increased competition among major producers, and weak Chinese demand.”
Over the past decade, China’s role in global grain imports has shifted considerably. Historically, China imported modest amounts of corn and wheat, averaging around 3 million tonnes annually, according to Absa AgriTrends.
However, by 2020, China dramatically increased its imports of these grains, largely from the US, to rebuild its reserves post-pandemic. This surge boosted prices, but since then, imports have declined.
For the 2024/25 season, Absa economists say corn imports are expected to drop by 57%, while wheat imports are forecast to decrease by 41%. Factors such as higher domestic production in China, weaker demand from the Chinese livestock sector, and economic slowdowns have contributed to this shift.
Despite these declines, China’s role in global markets remains significant. The AgriTrends report highlights that although China’s imports have decreased, “its ability to influence prices cannot be understated.”
The global agricultural market has also been impacted by trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China. Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration triggered retaliatory actions from China, which resulted in a marked decline in U.S. soybean imports in 2018.
As the Absa AgriTrends report notes, “there is a clear inverse relationship between soybean imports to China from Brazil and the U.S.” As China shifted its imports to Brazil, U.S. soybean exports suffered, and prices remained subdued despite higher global demand.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 edition of the Absa AgriTrends report for free.
Local grains and oilseeds dynamics
Focusing on local markets, South Africa’s maize prices diverged from global trends in late 2023. The Absa AgriTrends report attributes this to the “El Niño conditions” that caused a mid-summer drought and negatively impacted yields.
Due to the reduced production, local SAFEX maize prices began increasing in 2024, peaking in early 2025. The maize crop for the 2023/24 season decreased by 22%, with white maize production dropping by 29% and yellow maize by 14%.
The price surge for maize was further exacerbated by high regional demand as neighbouring countries also faced drought-induced production cuts. “The higher price response for white maize was due to high regional demand as neighbouring countries also faced drought-related maize production cuts,” the report says.
Soybeans: Regional dynamics
For soybeans, South Africa is expected to see a significant production rebound in 2024/25. The Absa AgriTrends report notes a 25.8% increase in production, which will help maintain South Africa’s position as a net soybean exporter.
Despite the decline in local soybean production the previous year, which pushed SAFEX soybean prices to import parity levels, prices started gathering momentum in the last quarter of 2024 due to weather-related concerns.
Although the report cautions that high global production will continue to weigh on prices, it also points out that “lower production in the U.S. would increase vulnerabilities to any production challenges for Brazil and Argentina, presenting upside price risks.”
Wheat: Pressures on local producers
Wheat production in South Africa has been under pressure due to weather-related challenges in recent seasons. The report notes that “wheat output declined for two consecutive years, with production falling by 2.8% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024.”
Factors such as excessive rains, late frost, and flooding have significantly impacted yields, and despite stable planting areas, the report suggests that “wheat production has trended downward due to consistently low average yields.”
