South Africa’s livestock sector has weathered a decade of shocks, from devastating disease outbreaks to global trade disruptions, proving both its resilience and adaptability. This is according to the latest Absa AgriTrends report, just released.
The 2019 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak rocked beef exports, while African swine fever and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) reshaped pork and poultry markets, driving volatility in both domestic and international pricing.
In 2025, these biosecurity risks remain front and centre. A new FMD outbreak has triggered movement restrictions and raised concerns for beef exports, while avian influenza in key production regions abroad, especially Brazil and parts of the Northern Hemisphere, has heightened global poultry market uncertainty.
These events underscore the importance of robust disease surveillance, strategic biosecurity measures and coordinated responses in safeguarding production and market access.
Beef prices climb amid supply tightness
After years of sideways movement, beef prices gained momentum in the second quarter of 2025. Herd rebuilding, drought-induced slaughter increases and the FMD outbreak all contributed to tight supply, pushing carcass prices up.
While operational measures such as strategic sourcing and government vaccination initiatives provided some relief, affordability constraints remain. Elevated prices are prompting consumers to shift toward cheaper proteins like poultry and pork.
Looking ahead, domestic supply is expected to recover gradually, especially as major feedlots resume full operations. Export opportunities could provide further price support, particularly if China lifts current trade restrictions.
Globally, tightening supply and strong demand in the United States (US), Brazil and Australia continue to elevate international beef prices, offering South African producers an opportunity to capitalise on high-value markets.
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Tight global supply supports sheep prices
South Africa’s lamb and mutton market is riding a wave of global price strength. Droughts and flock reductions in Australia and New Zealand, combined with strong export demand from China, the US and the Middle East, have tightened global supply.
Locally, higher beef prices and expanding exports have lifted lamb and mutton prices, though affordability remains an issue for most consumers. With limited restocking expected until 2027, high prices are likely to persist, providing strong incentives for producers to maintain supply.
Pork: Stable, with modest upside
Pork prices have followed a steady trajectory thanks to higher slaughter weights, improved feed efficiency and growing consumer demand for affordable protein.
Class C beef price increases in mid-2025 have started to influence pork pricing, suggesting modest upward potential. Lower feed costs and operational efficiency are expected to support producer profitability, which may encourage expanded supply in 2026.
Supply shocks keep poultry prices elevated
The poultry sector continues to feel the impact of biosecurity events. The May 2025 HPAI outbreak in Brazil led to a temporary import ban in South Africa, which constrained supply and pushed fresh poultry prices above R40 per kilogram. Local operational challenges have reinforced tight supply.
Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain elevated heading into the festive season, supported by red meat price pressures, while vaccination and biosecurity measures gradually stabilise production.
Despite ongoing biosecurity and trade challenges, South Africa’s livestock sector shows remarkable resilience. Beef, lamb, pork and poultry producers are leveraging operational efficiency, strategic sourcing and international trade opportunities to stabilise markets.
With tight global supply in key categories and rising domestic demand, 2025 offers opportunities for growth, but also underscores the sector’s vulnerability to disease outbreaks and international market swings.
Click here to download the latest Absa AgriTrends report.
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