Record harvests and export growth boost agri confidence

As the agricultural sector navigates extreme seasonal patterns, policy turbulence, export momentum, and structural challenges, industry leaders at the recent Agbiz media roundtable underscored the importance of resilience and opportunity.

Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo provided insights into the past year’s developments and the road ahead.

Opening the session, Sihlobo pointed out that the Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) rose five points in the fourth quarter to 67, well above the 50-point optimism threshold.

Sihlobo noted that confidence within the farming sector is currently very high and anticipates that agricultural GDP for the fourth quarter will surpass the previous quarter, underpinned by strong harvests, cost efficiency, and global demand.

State of agriculture

Despite a six-week delayed start, the season delivered remarkable outcomes, including South Africa’s second-largest maize crop, a record soybean harvest, and strong fruit and vegetable outputs.

“There were no policy shifts. We need to call on the rain that delivered the good crop this year, as well as the farmers’ efforts,” he said.

Concerns over maize grading persisted, with class white maize (WM1) quality dropping from 92% to about 66%, but financial outcomes remained stable.

Sihlobo said investment trends reflect sector confidence with tractor sales up by 10% and combined harvester sales up by 8%.

Agricultural exports rose 10% in the first three quarters, reaching $11.7 billion, with the third quarter alone surpassing $4.7 billion. The United States benefited from a temporary 90-day tariff suspension, while growth across Africa, the EU, and the Americas was supported by improved port operations and robust global grain demand.

Job creation and animal health

Agriculture remains a major employer, with roughly 920 000 jobs in primary agriculture and 350 000 in the grain value chain.

Sihlobo highlighted the wider social impact, saying, “It is fair to say you have about 1.4 million South Africans directly benefiting from agriculture. Multiply that by the new average family size, and you see the social benefit.”

According to Sihlobo, livestock, which comprises roughly half of the farming economy, faces challenges including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), high feed costs, and falling meat and soybean prices.

Vaccination coverage for 12.1 million cattle, particularly in communal areas, is a concern for 2026. On a positive note, soil moisture levels remain healthy across summer rainfall regions, with forecasts indicating above-average rainfall through March 2026, supporting a stable season.

Theo Boshoff, Agbiz CEO, reflected on misinformation following the Expropriation Act, crop protection activism, US trade tensions, and poorly consulted employment equity targets created uncertainty.

“There’s a general feeling that there was a lack of consultation and a lot of these targets were very, very difficult to meet,” he said.

Logistics and infrastructure

Despite challenges, Boshoff highlighted advancements in logistics. The court approved the joint venture for Durban’s Pier 2 (51% Transnet, 49% private sector), with operations planned for January 2026. Cape Town’s port performance improved with new equipment, anti-swing gantries, and better recovery after wind disruptions.

“There has been an enormous amount of new equipment, and we are upgrading that port, There are 94 lines that service predominantly agricultural areas, rural areas.

“That transit has indicated they have no intention to keep maintaining. It’s not profitable for them, so they’re willing to put it up, essentially a concession for the private sector,” he said.

Agbiz researcher Diaan Venter stressed the urgent need to shift freight from road to rail, citing economic and environmental benefits. Trucks, while flexible, cause significantly more damage than rail.

“Heavy vehicles cause up to 125 000 times more damage over their lifetime, compared to normal passenger vehicles. Then the external costs in terms of pollution, damage to roads, and so forth are 11 times higher compared to rail,” he said.

However, he noted that road freight remains more competitive due to its greater reach, flexibility, and quicker turnaround, creating a “path dependency” effect. Even when rail is a viable option, road tends to dominate, imposing long-term costs on infrastructure, the environment, and overall sector competitiveness.