There’s cautious optimism in South Africa’s agricultural sector as weather forecasts point towards a La Niña event for the upcoming 2024/25 summer crop season. This welcome news comes after a challenging 2023/24 season ravaged by El Niño-induced drought.
“We are two months away from the start of the 2024/25 summer crop season,” says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz. “Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence.”
Sihlobo cites the International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at Columbia University, which places the probability of a La Niña at over 50% between now and April 2025. “Such weather events typically bring above-average rainfall across South Africa and the entire Southern region,” he adds.
Mzansi farmers are hoping for a return to favorable conditions similar to those experienced four seasons ago.
“Given that South Africa had one of the most prolonged periods of La Niña induced rains, from the 2019/20 season to the 2022/23 season, the news of an end to the 2023/24 season El Niño is a welcome development,” says Sihlobo.
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However, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) remains cautious. “The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a Neutral state and is predicted to weaken further,” they reported on 5 July 2024. “However, predictions are mixed in whether it will weaken towards a La Niña state during our next summer season.”
Sihlobo acknowledges this cautious approach, stating, “Such cautious optimism is understandable from the South African and the Australian weather authorities given that we are early in the season.”
He highlights the positive shift away from El Niño, “This does not take away from the fact that the El Niño weather event has at least ended, and we are now moving towards a favourable agricultural production environment.”
Recovery from El Niño’s impact
The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed harvest is projected to be down 20% year-on-year due to the El Niño drought.
“This is at a time when farmers had planted slightly bigger areas for summer grains and oilseeds from the previous season,” explains Sihlobo. The impact was particularly severe in areas reliant on rain-fed crops.
“South Africa’s 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production is projected to be down 20% year-on-year, at 16 million tonnes,” says Sihlobo.
“This comprises white maize, yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.”
Despite these challenges, South Africa’s position is better than its neighbours.
“Zambia and Zimbabwe, among others, lost over half of their grain harvest because of the 2023/24 mid-summer drought,” Sihlobo points out. A La Niña event, with sufficient rainfall, could significantly improve the agricultural outlook and food security situation across the Southern African region in 2025.
The agricultural sector is now focused on the upcoming season and global market trends.
Sihlobo concludes, “The financial impact of the drought on the farming enterprises will be evident in the coming months. Still, given that the country had four consecutive seasons of good rains and ample harvest when commodity prices were also elevated, the financial stress may not be as severe as in previous droughts.”
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