Ahead of the official start of the 2025 citrus export season in April, the variety focus groups of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) presented their predicted volumes available for export in the upcoming season.
Gerrit van der Merwe, chairman of the CGA, said all available data project exports that were in line with the five-year average, which means there would be sufficient fruit for global markets. He said the outlook suggested no oversupply or undersupply,
Van der Merwe said that, overall, the quality of the fruit for 2025 looks to be excellent. The breakdown of various variety estimates indicates a balanced season ahead.
Promising start for citrus industry
“The current prediction is that 32.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons will be exported to key markets, which represents a 5% decrease from last year. Estimates for citrus-producing regions, the Sundays River Valley, Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal), Boland and Patensie, are all down, but Hoedspruit is estimated to increase its lemon production.
“Early lemons have already started to be sent to overseas markets, especially to the Middle East, Russia and Canada.”
Gerrit van der Merwe
“Predictions show a 5% increase in export volume for Navel oranges, at 26.1 million 15kg cartons available for packing. The orange focus group has, for the first time, split estimates into early/mid Navels (11.34 million cartons) and late Navels (14.75 million cartons) to improve tracking. Last year, unusual weather events such as floods in the Western Cape and frost in Limpopo affected Navel exports, but, weather-permitting, volumes are expected to improve in 2025,” he said.
After four years of slight declines in Valencia orange figures, exports are likely to improve in 2025. An increase on 2024 figures of 6% to 52 million 15kg cartons is projected. The possible impact of juicing prices on this figure is not yet quantifiable. Last year, unusually high local processing prices suppressed exports of Valencia oranges.
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Meanwhile, the CGA said grapefruit exports are also predicted to increase, and the 6% growth figure translates into 13.5 million 17-kg cartons.
“The peak period for grapefruit exports is expected to be between middle April and middle May. The grapefruit focus group is also embarking on a new marketing project this season, aiming to drive an increase in grapefruit consumption amongst a younger target audience in the European market.
“Two early mandarin varieties show stability in supply. The Satsuma season is likely to again, as in 2024, close around the 1.8 million 15kg cartons mark. The Nova season shows a slight 2% decrease to 4.5 million 15kg cartons. The third early mandarin variety, Clementines, presents a solid increase of 10%, with exports expected to increase to 5.4 million 15kg cartons.”
Port efficiency crucial for exports
According to CGA, long-term projections still show that if all role-players work together to address challenges, the industry can reach its target of exporting 260 million cartons by 2032 and, in the process, create 100 000 new jobs.
“Two of the largest challenges to achieve this target remain deficient rail and port logistics and the European Union’s unnecessary phytosanitary (plant health) measures regarding citrus black spot (CBS) and false coddling moth (FCM),” the CGA stated.
Mitchell Brooke, the CGA’s logistics development manager, said the organisation is grateful for the progress made by Transnet in terms of equipment acquisitions at ports, but the only long-term way to achieve the needed efficiency is through the structural change that only public sector participation can bring.
“The EU’s trade restrictive and unscientific measures on CBS and FCM are the focus of two historic cases at the World Trade Organisation’s trade dispute body. We hope for swift progress on the cases, but disputes like these take time.
“We remain optimistic for the issue to be finalised before the 2026 season. Every season, the measures cost SA’s growers no less than R3.7 billion, keeping especially emerging growers out of the EU market,” Brooke said.
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