Agri outlook: SA’s farmers face a year of reckoning and renewal

Some agricultural experts are calling 2026 the year of consolidation, with the key focus on learning from the past and looking ahead despite the many challenges in the sector.

Daniel Rossouw, head of sales: agriculture at Nedbank commercial banking, said while it is critically important to look ahead, it is fair to look at previous years to understand what went wrong and how it can be fixed.

Rossouw was speaking at the Nedbank-sponsored Agri Webinar 2026, where various experts discussed South Africa’s agricultural outlook, global trade and policies.

Dealing with biosecurity, global trade challenges

He highlighted that biosecurity – not only foot-and-mouth disease, but also other diseases – is the biggest threat to agriculture both locally and internationally.

“Urgency in addressing biosecurity is important at the moment, and this is where partnerships come to play, and this should not only be on diseases but on all challenges the sector faces.

“The global trade challenges are also playing a crucial role in the sector on a global scale because this has forced us to look for new markets. We had little time to react, which had some of its challenges, and climate change is another trend that cannot be ignored. We have seen how floods in some parts of South Africa have had a significant impact, and also droughts as well,” he said.

With these challenges, farmers should implement long-term plans as some of the issues at hand cannot be resolved overnight, Rossouw said, adding that farmers need to continue operating.

“Working together as agribusiness, organised agriculture, civil society and government will take us from where we are to greater heights. And implementing smart climate farming tools and techniques that are available and not that expensive, so we need to urge farmers to use data and take an informed decision.”

Uncertain weather patterns

Meteorologist Johann van der Berg said for the next five years, there will be more El Niños than La Niñas. He has called on farmers to be up to date about weather patterns, not only for a specific year but for the long term.

“We are going to see a rapid growth of El Niño in the coming weeks. When it comes to the weather outlook, there is still a lot of uncertainties on what to really expect as the weather patterns change now.

“The year 2025 was the third warmest year on record, and if we are heading towards El Niño for 2026/27 there is a likelihood that it will be very hot, and this is globally, not only in South Africa.”
Johann van der Berg

Agricultural economist and director at the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Tracy Davids, said that despite challenges, 2025 exceeded early expectations.

She cited that international meat and fruit prices were strong, there were some improvements at the ports, and also some input costs later in the year, and tariff relief for selected commodities.

“The negative factors include widespread foot-and-mouth disease, which has caused havoc in the meat industry. US tariff adjustments brought great uncertainty, and lower grain prices internationally were also not good for us.

“Broader infrastructure challenges like water, roads and wind and equipment limitations in Cape Town port in the late season continue to be a challenge,” she said.