Asia’s appetite fuels new growth for South African citrus

South Africa’s fruit export industry stands at a strategic turning point. Dr Lucius Phaleng, a trade advisor at the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association (AFMA), says despite technical trade barriers, the country’s orange industry continues to perform strongly in Asia, with exports to China soaring nearly fivefold over five years and India emerging as a key growth market.

As the global demand for fresh produce intensifies and international food safety regulations tighten, South Africa’s fruit industry finds itself at a strategic crossroads. The current trends reveal notable competitive strengths, persistent constraints, and transformative opportunities that could redefine the country’s export route.

As the world’s second-largest exporter, South Africa continues to demonstrate robust export capabilities. Between 2003 and 2025, shipments to Asia expanded significantly, driven by rising incomes and growing consumer demand for fresh, nutritious produce.

China has emerged as the leading destination, with imports of South African oranges increasing almost fivefold over the past five years to reach approximately 64 052 tons in 2024. Other high-growth markets include India and Indonesia, where South Africa has strengthened its position despite intense competition from Egypt, Spain, Greece, and the United States. The key trade indicators highlight this performance.

The country maintains a consistently high relative comparative advantage (RCA) index, frequently above 20, while the Net Export Index (NXi) remains close to one hundred, underscoring South Africa’s sustained global advantage in orange production and trade.

Mixed bag of oranges in Asia

South Africa’s export strategy in Asia has yielded mixed outcomes across different markets. Significant annual growth exceeding 80% has been recorded in India, reinforcing its role as a core buyer. However, exports to Japan and South Korea have declined due to stiff competition from the US and Australia, alongside tightening market access conditions and complex phytosanitary requirements.

Additionally, the country lost market share in major Asian destinations, including Hong Kong, India, and South Korea, due to slower export growth than the global average from 2003 to 2013. Encouragingly, improved competitiveness in the period after 2014 has enabled the industry to regain traction in these regions.

Technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures play a critical role in food safety and technical regulations. While intended to protect consumers, these rules often function as stringent non-tariff barriers. Japan, for example, applies rigorous TBT standards on transport, storage, and labelling that impact more than 75% of orange imports, including those from South Africa.

It was confirmed statistically that stricter SPS and TBT regulations negatively affect export volumes, which suggests that compliance with these measures increases operational costs and may reduce competitiveness. Nevertheless, the same regulations can drive improvements in quality and long-term market positioning when effectively managed.

South Africa’s orange industry continues to show resilience and competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving global marketplace. Yet the future hinges on strategic investments in infrastructure, regulatory compliance, and market diversification. As Asian markets increasingly emphasise food safety, quality, and reliability, the industry’s ability to adapt proactively will determine its long-term success.

Dr Lucius Phaleng is a trade advisor at the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association (AFMA), specialising in trade and trade-environment matters affecting the procurement and supply of feed ingredients and raw materials in the feed industry. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.