The global macadamia industry is on an upward trajectory, with increasing demand and price hikes signifying a move towards long-awaited stability. Strategic marketing efforts have successfully positioned macadamia nuts as a mainstream ingredient, shedding their former status as a niche product and boosting global awareness.
As the world’s largest producer of macadamia nuts, South Africa is gearing up for another harvest season. The 2025 harvest began in March and will continue through mid-winter.
Global Macadamias has announced price increases of up to 37%, depending on the crack-out style and quality of the nuts. These increases follow consecutive price hikes that reflect a welcome recovery from the pandemic-driven economic downturn, which initially caused downward pressure on prices.
“Fervent marketing efforts are paying off as product manufacturers recognise the value of incorporating macadamia nuts into their product lines,” said Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias.
“Interest from consumers is growing, fueled by health research highlighting the benefits of macadamia nuts, contributing to demand stability.”
Macadamia nuts are sold into two primary markets: inshell and kernel. China and Vietnam continue to dominate the inshell market, while Western markets, as well as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, favor the kernel variety.
“While inshell demand rebounded quickly post-pandemic, kernel demand has significantly strengthened over the past year,” Hartman explained. “The inshell market is very elastic – when prices rise, demand quickly drops – but kernel demand has remained steady as product developers see the potential for macadamias in diverse applications.”
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Optimism abounds within the kernel market, as ongoing efforts to engage product developers are paying dividends.
“The ingredients and confectionery industries are innovating with new products that feature macadamias,” Hartman added. “Introducing a new product is a substantial investment, and once macadamias are included, it often leads to long-term, stable demand. This is exactly what the industry needs right now, after experiencing volatile prices in recent years.”
This positive outlook is supported by a steady increase in global macadamia production, with South Africa’s national crop expected to rise by 8% per year as orchards mature. For the 2025 season, however, the increase is projected to be slightly smaller – around 7% – due to adverse weather conditions. The estimated crop volume stands at 93 000 tonnes inshell, up from 86 700 tonnes in 2024.
Global trade and weather challenges loom
Despite South Africa’s strong outlook, the international macadamia market faces potential challenges. Australia, the world’s second-largest producer, is expected to see a reduction in its harvest due to the impact of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Additionally, shifting global trade policies could create uncertainties, particularly regarding the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in the United States. Hartman noted, “The potential revocation of Agoa could result in tariffs on South African macadamia exports. However, since the U.S. produces minimal volumes of macadamias, we may avoid these tariffs.”
Global Macadamias, in partnership with industry bodies like Samac (the South African Macadamias) and the World Macadamia Organisation, has worked to solidify macadamias’ position as a competitive ingredient in the global marketplace.
“We’ve ensured that macadamias are now viewed as a viable alternative to other widely used nuts,” said Hartman. “This strategic shift has been critical in stabilising demand.”
However, some challenges remain, especially for macadamia farmers who are still recovering from the market downturns of previous years.
“While another price increase would benefit growers, it’s crucial that macadamias remain competitively priced,” Hartman cautioned. “The industry is stronger now, but we must balance long-term sustainability with the need for fair pricing.”
As the 2025 harvest season unfolds, there are promising signs of a more stable environment.
“Conversations with buyers suggest growing confidence in macadamias as a premium, high-quality ingredient,” Hartman concluded. “With steady demand and a growing supply, the future for macadamias looks brighter than ever.”
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