In a surprising turn of events, China has recently purchased a substantial amount of maize from South Africa, signalling a potential shift in their import patterns. This is the view of leading agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo.
“It was the first time we saw such large volumes in recent memory. They probably just discovered our great quality maize – nicely dried in the Southern African sun,” says Sihlobo, highlighting the unprecedented nature of China’s recent purchase.
“China’s maize imports from South Africa averaged 3 780 tonnes per annum over the past ten years,” Sihlobo notes, emphasising the contrast with the current purchase of 108 104 tonnes. This surge in imports indicates a significant departure from previous volumes.
Reasons behind the shift
Sihlobo speculates on the reasons behind China’s increased interest in Mzansi maize. “If we consider South Africa’s 2022/23 total maize exports of 3.64 million tonnes, China’s recent purchase of 108 104 tonnes is a relatively small volume,” he explains.
South Africa’s leading export markets for maize include Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Mexico, Italy, South Korea, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and various markets within the African continent.
Highlighting China’s role as a major global maize producer, Sihlobo points out, “China is a serious maize producer, accounting for 22% of global maize production, an average of 277 million tonnes.”
However, due to their large usage, China still relies on maize imports from the world market. “Over the past three seasons, China’s maize imports averaged 25 million tonnes a year,” he adds. The leading suppliers of maize to China have traditionally been the United States, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Russia, Kazakhstan, and South Africa.
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Is it political posturing?
Dispelling any notions of political motives, Sihlobo says, “So, I have doubts that South Africa’s recent maize exports to China are some political posture, somewhat attempting to replace the United States.”
He highlights the stark difference in maize exports between South Africa and the United States, stating, “US maize exports to China averaged 17 million tonnes a year in the past two seasons. This far exceeds South Africa’s total maize production, which is 15.9 million tonnes this year.”
Sihlobo believes that the recent surge in exports to China should be seen as a general market activity rather than a strategic move. “In good seasons, South Africa’s maize exports are usually just over 3 million tonnes to a range of markets I mentioned above,” he clarifies. Therefore, he advises against reading too much into China’s recent maize imports from South Africa.
Keeping a close watch
Closing on a positive note, Sihlobo expresses his support for expanding agricultural exports to China, stating, “Of course, as a proudly South African working in agriculture, I am always supportive of expanding our agricultural exports to China and keen on seeing more of our high-quality fruits, grains, and beef on the plates of Chinese consumers.”
While China’s recent maize purchase from South Africa is noteworthy, the overall impact on the global maize market is likely to be limited, Sihlobo says. It remains to be seen whether this surge in imports from South Africa is an isolated event or indicative of a broader trend. Market analysts and industry experts will closely monitor future developments to gain a deeper understanding of China’s evolving maize import patterns.
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