As the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States of America has intensified in the past week, airspace closures have disrupted global travel and logistics. With the potential of exports from South Africa bound for Europe and other major markets being delayed, rerouted or even halted, many leaders in the agricultural sector expressed their concern about the situation.
Chief executive officer of Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA), Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, said this time of year, a significant amount of early-season lemon exports typically go to the Middle East, so some shipments could be affected.
“The extent of the possible impact is still unclear. Impact could also be minimal thanks to rerouting and other measures under consideration by shipping lines.
“The early lemons form a small part of the crop, usually by beginning of March, only 2% of the crop has been packed. Citrus season only really starts in April,” he said.
SA economy at risk
Roelf Pienaar, managing director of Tru-Cape, said while it is still too early to assess the potential impact of the war in the Middle East on their apple and pear exports, they are monitoring the situation closely with concern.
Meanwhile, a senior analyst at the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Mmatlou Kalaba, said interruptions should be expected.
“The main concern and almost the first economic casualty is likely to be petrol price, in case the Strait of Hormuz is closed as a result of the latest developments,” he said.
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Senior economist at the trade research unit of the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), Thabile Nkunjana, said escalating war in the Middle East presents some serious risks for South Africa’s economy at large, but the impact will be different across sectors.
He said in 2025, of the US$15.1 billion worth of South Africa’s agricultural exports, the Middle East accounted for US$1.3 billion or 8%. But of this 8%, the Gulf states that are currently in the crossfire accounted for US$1.0 billion or 80%.
Impact on agricultural exports, fuel prices
“The immediate impact is on fuel prices, given the major influence that region has on the world oil production. There’s also a serious risk of inflation, which would really be problematic for South Africa’s poor, as it will be the case for other countries.
“The agricultural sector is certainly one of the sectors that are at serious risk because of this for several reasons. First, exports are currently the main concern for the sector, especially given the fact that almost all Member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in one way involved,” he explained.
Nkunjana said the leading agricultural products that South Africa exports to the affected areas include oranges, lemons, beef, mandarins, apples, grapes, pears, strawberries, cheese, and other berries.
“Oil prices have increased to their highest in eight months, increasing by around 10% due to this war. This has serious implications for transportation of our fruits, which are in season, especially large commodities like citrus, which are anticipating another record export this year, and with the region buying large volumes.
“Because of the risks in shipping in that region now with several airports closed, causing a glut of people stranded across that region, insurance companies are likely to increase their rates as some companies will not allow their ships to enter the region, hence possibly inflating the costs,” Nkunjana cautioned.
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