Agoa extension could boost SA’s value-added exports

South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US reached US$536 million in 2024, signalling a robust commercial partnership. With processed goods like apple juice and ice cream leading growth, economist Buhlebemvelo Dube analyses how the possible Agoa extension could open opportunities for expanding value-added exports.

South Africa’s possible ongoing inclusion under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has been broadly welcomed, often seen as diplomatic relief amid rising geopolitical tension. In 2024, South Africa exported US$536 million worth of agricultural products to the United States, increasing from US$385 million in 2020.

Despite yearly fluctuations, notably the strong performance in 2021, the five-year trend indicates a consistent supplier relationship rather than isolated transactions. In this context, Agoa’s renewal functions more as an indicator of preference rather than a concession in that the United States continues to source food and agricultural products from South Africa because the relationship remains commercially viable, institutionally credible, and regulatorily stable.

Top agricultural exports to the US

Table 1 summarises the 2024 export basket to the United States, which is both concentrated and structurally bifurcated. The ten leading product categories account for around US$312.7 million, with shelled macadamias (US$51.7 million) being the largest item but showing a negative growth rate from 2020 to 2024 (−9% p.a.), likely due to price-cycle compression or demand shifts within a previously dominant category.

Conversely, the strongest growth is seen in value-added and processed products, particularly apple-juice concentrate (+39% p.a.) and ice cream (+26% p.a.), where the United States takes a substantial share of South Africa’s global exports (70% and 59%, respectively). This mix of rapid growth and buyer concentration indicates significant market dependence and, therefore, high option value associated with policy stability.

Table 1: Trade indicators of top agricultural exports to the USA from SA

Product	Export value in US$ (000)	Annual growth in value between 2020-2024, %, p.a.	Share in South Africa’s exports, %
Macadamia nuts (shelled)	51671	-9	32
Oranges	46708	1	6
Mandarins	42020	2	7
Ice cream	32878	26	59
Wine	32488	-2	7
Dried grapes	26951	36	15
Apple juice	25954	39	70
Raw cane sugar	18325	0	7
Fresh grapes	17876	27	2
Dried peaches, pears, and papaws	17788	56	34

Source: Author’s calculations based on ITC data, drawing on South African Revenue Service (SARS) and UN COMTRADE statistics (2026)

A similar pattern appears in semi-processed horticulture, with dried peaches, pears, papaws, and related fruits (+56% p.a.; 34% share) and dried grapes (+36% p.a.; 15% share) rapidly growing in shelf-stable, logistics- and compliance-intensive categories.

Fresh citrus remains significant in absolute terms, with oranges (+1% p.a.; 6% share) and mandarins (+2% p.a.; 7% share), but their low growth and modest US absorption suggest a more competitive and diversified outlet landscape.

Wine (−2% p.a.; 7% share) and raw cane sugar (0% p.a.; 7% share) are effectively stagnant, while fresh grapes (+27% p.a.) experience strong growth with minimal dependence on the US market (2% share). Overall, the top ten agricultural tariff lines account for nearly three-fifths of South Africa’s US-bound agricultural exports, underscoring the importance of stability.

Trade data further indicates that the most economically impactful exposure is not in traditional orchard-led exports but in rapidly expanding processed and semi-processed food products. These are exactly the sectors where tariff wedges remain significant; 12% for ice cream, 19% for raw cane sugar, and 9% for preserved peaches, and where preference certainty acts as an insurance mechanism for added value rather than a subsidy for primary production.

Improving market access and competitiveness

Agoa is a unilateral preference scheme, different from a reciprocal trade agreement, and is governed by eligibility criteria and rules of origin. This design underscores why domestic policy certainty is crucial, as it influences contracting horizons and investment decisions rather than merely reducing border tariffs. The House-approved bill proposing to extend the programme’s statutory dates to 31 December 2028 provides a multi-year planning framework instead of quarter-to-quarter brinkmanship.

Therefore, Agoa’s extension reduces market access risks precisely where South Africa aims to progress along the agricultural value chain. Whether this option is utilised will depend less on eligibility and more on effective implementation, including reliable logistics, prompt compliance processes, and exporter readiness.

The extended preferences will improve market access to the large US market, and the competitiveness and cooperation of South Africa’s agricultural sector, involving public and private stakeholders, will ensure we capitalise on this opportunity. Cautious optimism remains essential because Agoa is not an indefinite entitlement. It is a renewable agreement, implicitly tested through delivery.

South Africa’s challenge is to view this extension not as reassurance, but as evidence that its agricultural trade framework remains globally relevant. In a climate of trade uncertainty, that is a strategic asset worth reinforcing.

Buhlebemvelo Dube is an agricultural economist in trade research at the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC). The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.