South Africa’s crop estimates committee has reduced its forecast for the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest, mainly due to the impact of a mid-summer drought. The latest report, released today, estimates the harvest at 15.9 million tonnes, down 0.5% from last month and 21% lower than last year.
The new forecast shows a drop in maize production, now estimated at 13.34 million tonnes, a 0.53% decrease from last month. White maize production is steady at 6.35 million tonnes, while yellow maize is down by 1% to 6.99 million tonnes.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo explains, “The decline varies because white maize is mostly grown in the west, which was hit harder by the drought.”
Compared to last year, white maize production is down by 26% and yellow maize by 12%. Despite this, the expected harvest will still meet the country’s annual maize needs of about 12 million tonnes, leaving 1.4 million tonnes for export. “However, this export figure is much lower than the 3.4 million tonnes exported last year,” Sihlobo notes.
Rising maize prices
The reduced supply has already pushed maize prices up. “Maize prices will likely stay high due to tighter supplies later in the season and into early 2025,” says Sihlobo.
“Currently, white maize prices are over 40% higher than last year, at R5 490 per tonne. Yellow maize prices are up 10%, at R4 180 per tonne.”
The oilseed sector also faces difficulties. The soybean harvest estimate is unchanged at 1.7 million tonnes, a 36% drop from last year.
“This decline is due to lower yields in many areas, and South Africa may need to import soybean oilcake this season,” Sihlobo explains.
The sunflower seed harvest is estimated at 649 250 tonnes, down 10% from last year, mainly due to poor yields in the west. Other crops show mixed results: groundnut production is up 1% at 53 755 tonnes, sorghum is up 2% at 95 830 tonnes, and dry beans are down 1% at 49 560 tonnes.
The latest forecast shows the big impact of the mid-summer drought on the country’s crops.
“For consumers, there is no crisis with grain and oilseed supplies,” Sihlobo reassures. “However, white maize prices might go up, especially with more demand from Southern Africa later in the year and early 2025.”
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