While South Africa’s 2023-24 maize production has, as of 26 September 2024, been lowered by the country’s Crop Estimates Committee by 2% from August to 12.8 million tonnes (down 22% year-on-year), South Africa will continue with its export activity.
South Africa’s maize exports could reach 1.90 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, which ends in April 2025 (up from the previous estimate of 1.85 million tonnes). But this is down from 3.4 million tonnes of exports last year.
A tricky season
About 700k tonnes will likely be yellow maize, and 1.2 million will be white maize. What has helped is the higher opening stock of 2.4 million tonnes from the previous season, which boosted South Africa’s supplies, allowing the country to remain a net exporter while we have a bad crop.
The expected crop of 12.8 million tonnes and the opening stocks of 2.4 million tonnes from the last season meant South Africa had about 15 million tonnes of maize supplies. Thus allowing exports to continue.
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South Africa’s local maize consumption is estimated at 11.6 million tonnes (down from 11.7 million tonnes in the last year). Importantly, these figures are still tentative.
There may still be adjustments in the coming months, particularly on white maize export forecasts. We are in a tricky season with many unknowns.
Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6.08 million tonnes (down 2% m/m), with yellow maize at 6.72 million tonnes (down 2% m/m). The current maize crop of 12.80 million tonnes is the lowest in six years, again showing the sharp impact of the mid-summer drought in February and March 2024.
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