The myth that Zimbabwe was once the “breadbasket of Africa” just won’t stay buried. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), examines the data that debunks the myth.
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman popularised the term “zombie idea,” which is also the title of his new book, Arguing with Zombies.
This term refers to “ideas that keep being killed by evidence but shambles relentlessly forward, essentially because they suit a political agenda”.
One such “zombie idea” in African agriculture is the view that Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of the continent. I keep hearing this from various corners (and here from the late President Robert Mugabe, and lately on X), although evidence shows Zimbabwe was never a breadbasket.
Fellow agricultural economist Sifiso Ntombela and I found in an Africa Check essay in 2017 aimed at assessing whether Zimbabwe was ever a bread basket for Africa that it was not.
However, we found that Zimbabwe was a self-sufficient food producer until its land reform programme was instituted.
How much did Zimbabwe produce?
In our view, a country should be able to meet its staple food consumption needs and simultaneously command a notable share in exports of the same food commodity to be considered a “bread basket”.
An examination of the production data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization for key staple foods – maize and wheat – shows that Zimbabwe’s production of these commodities never exceeded a 10% contribution to Africa’s output over the past 55 years.
In the two decades before Mugabe’s leadership (1960–80), Zimbabwe contributed an average of 6% of Africa’s maize production – almost on par with Nigeria’s contribution but lower than Kenya’s contribution of 7%.
During that period, the country’s maize production outpaced consumption by an average of 400 000 tonnes a year, making it a net exporter.
During the first half of Mugabe’s rule (1980–2000), the country’s maize production contributed a share of 5% to Africa’s output. While it was a net importer in most years, on average, the country remained a net exporter of maize, with a declining maize trade balance. This decline, and the country’s trade balance, worsened following the introduction of Zimbabwe’s fast-track land reform programme in 2001.
The country’s share of maize production on the continent then dwindled to an average of 2%. During this period, its maize consumption outpaced production by an average of 550 000 tonnes per annum – turning it into a net importer. The trend is similar for wheat and other major grain commodities as a contribution to Africa’s food system.
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Fails to fit the idea of Africa’s breadbasket
The available data covers three distinct phases in Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector and suggests that the country was self-sufficient before and in the two decades after Mugabe came to power.
Even then, Zimbabwe’s maize and wheat output was generally modest and volatile. It wasn’t sufficient to support strong exports to the rest of the continent and world, which failed to fit the idea of a food basket.
In the third phase, the country’s maize and wheat production significantly declined, weakening Zimbabwe’s standing in the continent’s food system.
Overall, we view Zimbabwe as a self-sufficient food producer before its fast-track land reform programme.
However, limited evidence supports the notion that Zimbabwe has ever been “the breadbasket of Africa.”
So, this is just a zombie idea.
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