Carrots have seen one of the steepest price hikes in the first half of 2025, surging 33.7% year-on-year after heavy rains in northern provinces and the Western Cape disrupted harvesting.
Absa’s AgriTrends report notes that even short-term supply interruptions can trigger price spikes that persist for months, a pattern observed in 2022 and 2023. Market shortages were particularly acute in February, illustrating the sensitivity of carrots to weather events and harvesting delays.
Onion prices rose 30.3% in early 2025, reversing the low-price trend of 2024 caused by oversupply. A slight decrease in planted area, combined with a surge in exports after Botswana lifted its import ban in April, supported the recovery. Cumulative exports to neighbouring countries reached 1 761 tons in the first half of the year, helping local markets stabilise and maintain upward price momentum.
Potatoes offer some relief
Potato prices have remained comparatively stable thanks to steady production volumes and the absence of frost events that disrupted the market in 2024. Increased plantings in key regions, particularly Limpopo, are expected to support moderate pricing through the remainder of the season. While supply conditions are favourable, Absa warns that climate variability could still introduce short-term price fluctuations.
Demand-side factors
Vegetables account for 1.74% of total household consumption, with potatoes representing the largest share. Social grants, particularly the Social Relief of Distress Grant (SRDG), play a crucial role in supporting demand among low-income households.
Ongoing discussions about extending the SRDG or transitioning to a universal basic income could influence vegetable purchasing power in the medium term, especially if income support fails to keep pace with inflation.
Absa AgriTrends anticipates that potato prices may ease as volumes increase, while onion prices could remain firm due to limited plantings. Carrots are expected to retain their price sensitivity to supply shocks, which highlights the importance of weather monitoring and timely harvesting.
Overall, the vegetable market in 2025 is likely to see a mix of stability and volatility, shaped by seasonal supply, climate variability and household income dynamics.
