Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz’s chief economist, presents a detailed overview of South Africa’s agricultural conditions, examining weather impact and planting challenges. His expert insights highlight farmers’ resilience amidst drought concerns, projecting optimism for a promising season pending favourable rainfall.
I usually drive annually from Pretoria to the Wild Coast in the Eastern Cape every December. This journey allows me to assess South Africa’s agricultural conditions after the initial months of the summer season. The enjoyment of this trip largely depends on weather conditions and their impact on crops and vegetation.
During drought seasons like 2015, traversing dry grains, oilseed fields, and parched grazing veld can be disheartening. Conversely, it can be a uplifting drive during rainy seasons, with green and lush fields visible from the highway. This year’s drive fits the latter description.
From Pretoria to the Wild Coast, the vegetation was inviting and verdant, benefiting from the early summer’s favourable rainfall. In areas where planting occurred early in the season, the maize fields looked robust from a distance.
Other crops also appeared to be in good condition. One wouldn’t expect such favourable conditions amidst an El Nino season. However, the typical dryness of an El Nino might only begin to intensify from March 2024. This is particularly applicable to the central and eastern regions of South Africa, which might receive above-normal rainfall in the month prior, as per the South African Weather Service.
Planting delays and moisture challenges
Meanwhile, the western regions of the country could experience below-normal rain throughout the season. The soil moisture levels in the West are already low, causing concern among farmers. Nevertheless, not all areas have completed their intended planting. Some fields in Free State and Eastern Cape have yet to finish planting grains and oilseeds, putting these areas behind the usual planting calendar.
Usually, regions east of the N1 highway sow maize and soybeans between mid-October and mid-November. The regions to the west plant maize and sunflower seed, among other crops, between mid-November and mid-December.
We’ve passed this timeframe with some areas on both sides of the N1 highway yet to be fully planted.
The delays in summer grains and oilseed planting aren’t unique or worrying and were caused by excessive moisture in some regions. Additionally, the heat has disrupted activity for several weeks. The 2021/22 and the 2022/23 seasons, which saw abundant yields, were among those seasons that had planting behind the typical schedules.
Hope amidst rainfall concerns and livestock challenges
In discussions with farmers, they welcomed the recent rains, although some were excessive. Their current concern revolves more around extreme heat, already being experienced in the country’s northern regions. Elevated temperatures, without subsequent rainfall, can harm agriculture.
However, this isn’t a significant issue for now, with hopes that the country could still have a decent season (bearing in mind the risks of severe production conditions in the North West province).
At the start of the season, South African farmers aimed to plant a total area of 4.5 million hectares for the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed, marking a 2% increase year-on-year. Moreover, farm inputs organisations reported reasonably encouraging sales, further supporting the optimistic view about crop planting.
Regarding the livestock industry, the presence of green pastures is a welcomed development, especially as feed prices remain relatively high compared to pre-Covid-19 levels.
The challenge for livestock farmers lies in resolving biosecurity weaknesses to curb the spread of animal diseases in the country and minimize outbreaks. I remain confident that we are in for another good agricultural season, particularly if January and February bring favourable rainfall.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) echoed this optimism about the country’s central and eastern regions in the December 19, 2023, Seasonal Climate Watch. SAWS stated that “… multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during January to March, February to April, and March to May with the exception of the central and eastern coastal areas indicating higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall.”
This concern arises for the western regions of the country, while providing hope for the central and eastern regions.
- Wandile Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and author of A country of two agricultures.
