Favourable weather and increased crop plantings are boosting fresh produce supplies, keeping prices under pressure. Paul Makube, a senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial, explains how improved harvests and a stronger rand are helping cool down grocery bills.
The latest update on consumer price inflation (CPI) indicates good news for consumers as food price inflation decelerated for the second consecutive month to 4.4% year-on-year (y/y) in September 2025, underpinned by a slowdown in vegetables, fruits and nuts, oils and fats, and milk, other dairy products and eggs categories.
Monthly, the food CPI remained in deflationary mode after decreasing by 0.4% month‑on-month (m/m) in September from -0.1% m/m in August 2025.
Meanwhile, chip lovers can breathe a sigh of relief after average potato prices at the consumer level dropped sharply by 8.3% (-R1.6/kg) m/m and 17.8% (-R3.84/kg) y/y to R17.72/kg in September 2025. This weighed heavily on the vegetable CPI, which saw a significant deceleration of 8.1 percentage points from the August reading to a low of 1.2% y/y since January 2025.
Monthly, the vegetable CPI fell for the third consecutive month to -5.5% m/m in September 2025.
Favourable production conditions increase supply
We are likely to see a continuation of this trend in the subsequent CPI updates, given the significant downside pressure on potato prices that we currently observe at the producer level. Our analysis of the latest trends in domestic fresh produce markets shows a significant downside pressure on potato prices on the back of a strong rebound in production during the course of 2025.
Related stories
- Potatoes SA and DBE partner to power up school nutrition
- Rotten systems, failing markets: SA’s fresh produce crisis
- Grandfather’s garden unlocks big dreams for FS potato farmer
A combination of a positive turn in weather conditions and the increase in planted area underpinned the increased supply situation on the domestic fresh produce markets (FPMs).
This is a significant reversal of a weather-induced supply tightness that emanated from the extreme freezing conditions that affected parts of Limpopo and flooding conditions in the Western Cape around mid-year in 2024. The average price of potatoes on five major FPMs for the first three weeks of October 2025 was down by 58.7% y/y at R4.65/kg, while the corresponding volumes lifted by a whopping 28% y/y.
The supply outlook remains impressive given the higher plantings and favourable production conditions, thus posing further downside risk for prices in the medium term.
Lower vegetable prices
Cooking oil prices are also in deceleration mode under pressure due to decent harvests of sunflower (+12.1% y/y at 708 300 tons) and canola (+7.3% y/y at 311 640 tons). Meanwhile, global vegetable oil inflation continued to trend negatively for thirty-one consecutive months after falling by 7.5% y/y in September 2025.
The combination of a stronger rand exchange rate, lower international vegetable oil prices, and a decent domestic oilseeds harvest bodes well for consumers in terms of reduced frying costs.
Finally, the near-term seasonal outlook still points to the return of the La Niña weather pattern, which increases prospects of another good agricultural season with positive implications for food inflation.
- Paul Makube is a senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.
READ NEXT: CPA crisis: Non-compliance drags land reform down
