South Africa has not been immune from severe weather patterns most of the year. Farmers and communities have experienced hotter and drier seasons than normal, with less rain impacting the agricultural industry – all brought on by El Niño.
Experts had warned that in the year 2023, the El Niño impact was going to be felt more by farmers who needed to plan for it much better to ensure a smooth operation in their farming entity.
Be ready for the worst
According to global weather scientists, 2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record, with October being the hottest month so far.
Experts warned farmers to brace themselves because it is still going to heat up in the coming months. Environmental expert Anthony Turton said changes in the weather were long coming with data analysis pointing to rainfall patterns that have changed measurably since 1982 with two trends.
“The first trend is a change in the intensity of rainfall events. The second trend is a measurable shift in the seasonality of rainfall events.
“Both trends have major implications for crop production and ultimately national food security. For example, even a slight shift in seasonal distribution can change the yield of grain crops,” he said.
According to Turton, the weather patterns that the country currently faces have a negative impact not only on farmers but on the availability of water, which in agriculture is a key resource that is needed for operations whether it’s for crop or livestock production.
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Hotter and drier conditions
University of Cape Town (UCT) climate scientist Dr Peter Johnston said that the coming summer is expected to be warmer than normal with El Niño conditions.
He expressed that many forecasts are saying it is likely to be drier than normal in the summer rainfall region, but it’s not guaranteed.
“My general advice is to reduce input costs where possible minimal till, rainwater harvesting, be cautious of planting marginal crops or fields, and to select heat-resistant seeds, cultivars, and crops,” he said.
Meanwhile, Dr Johan Malherbe from the Agricultural Research Council, noted that current rainfall has not significantly affected maize crops.
He, however, said persistent dry conditions could disrupt production. Despite this, he mentioned an advantage due to three years of good rainfall leading into this period.
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The worst El Niño in SA
Director of Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science, Dr Neville Sweijd, shed light on key features of the global climate.
“The global climate indices represent a worrying development in that we are in new territory, really a different world to what we know.
“The precise implications of this are not yet apparent but will not be good for humanity. We have experienced the warmest day ever on record, and the warmest month, June,” said Sweijd.
Dr Christien Engelbrecht from the South African Weather Service said that, historically, the country has experienced drier and warmer seasons during El Niño, but this is somewhat variable and not consistent.
“The 2015/16 El Niño was the most severe of these events on record. And the 2023 version will be strong to very strong and it may well have a significant impact given the background of a warmer state of the global climate,” said Engelbrecht.
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