El Niño could cost African economies up to $20 billion. But, writes Zoë Karl-Waithaka of BCG Kenya, technology alone won’t save crops. Real resilience requires trusted data, infrastructure, and strong partnerships to turn early warnings into action for farmers.
As warnings about a strengthening El Niño mount, governments, agribusinesses and farmers across Africa are once again preparing for disruption. The World Meteorological Organisation has forecast shifting rainfall patterns and above-average temperatures across much of the continent, with drought risks rising in Southern Africa.
For economies already grappling with food insecurity and climate pressures, the potential cost is substantial. The African Development Bank estimates that a strengthening El Niño could inflict between US$10 billion and US$20 billion in economic losses across affected African countries, driven by impacts on agriculture, food security, infrastructure and public finances.
The high cost of El Niño on African economies
Weather shocks are not new to African agriculture. What is changing is their frequency, intensity and economic impact, from farm incomes and export earnings to food prices and public budgets. These shocks move quickly through food systems. What begins as a rainfall deficit in a growing region can ultimately affect processing, transport, trade flows and consumer prices. The earlier risks are identified, the greater the range of options available to respond.
Against this backdrop, a more practical question is emerging: who has the information needed to act before climate risks become business disruptions?
Democratising data across the value chain
For decades, competitive advantage in agriculture has often depended on privileged access to information, whether about weather patterns, crop conditions, supply constraints or shifts in demand.
In a recent report titled Agricultural Intelligence: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Food System, BCG argues that AI is beginning to democratise the information advantage that has historically underpinned decisions across the agricultural value chain, from crop planning and input management to trading, logistics and retail.
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The assumptions that long underpinned agricultural planning are becoming less reliable. According to the report, the global food system is now contending with three major pressures simultaneously: climate volatility, geopolitical realignment and tightening regulatory requirements. Agricultural intelligence is emerging as a fourth force that is reshaping how decisions are made across the system.
Across Africa, agriculture remains a major employer and economic contributor. In sub-Saharan Africa, the sector contributes roughly 15% of GDP and remains a primary source of income for millions of households. When climate shocks occur, the effects are therefore felt far beyond the agricultural sector itself.
Forecasting provides a useful example. Weather models, satellite imagery and remote-sensing technologies can now provide a far richer picture of emerging risks than was previously possible. The next step is ensuring those insights reach the people making decisions across the food system, from farmers and traders to financiers and policymakers.
From raw dashboards to real-world action
A maize farmer in Kenya, a horticulture exporter in Ethiopia or a grain trader in South Africa doesn’t need another dashboard. They need greater confidence in what a developing El Niño could mean for rainfall, yields, input requirements and market demand over the coming months. The value lies less in the technology itself than in the ability to act earlier and with greater certainty.
The need is particularly acute given the persistent gap between innovation and adoption across African agriculture. As highlighted in BCG’s Strategy to Scale report, solutions often demonstrate impact in pilots but struggle to reach scale because of fragmented ecosystems, limited financing and infrastructure constraints. Better intelligence can help reduce uncertainty for both producers and investors, improving the conditions for adoption and growth.
Improved forecasting can support planting decisions and crop management. Stronger visibility across supply chains can help businesses anticipate bottlenecks before they become disruptions. Better access to data can expand opportunities for financing and insurance, particularly for smaller producers who have historically struggled to demonstrate creditworthiness. More accurate intelligence can also help channel investment towards areas with the greatest long-term potential.
Ultimately, resilience depends on how quickly and effectively information can be translated into action.
Why technology alone isn’t enough for scale
Yet technology is only one part of the story.
Too many conversations about innovation focus on the tools themselves while overlooking the conditions required for those tools to create value. Experience across Africa has repeatedly shown that successful pilots do not automatically translate into systemic impact.
This was a key conclusion in the Strategy to Scale report, where BCG’s research found that lasting impact depends on more than innovation. It requires enabling infrastructure, institutional capability, coordinated ecosystems, sustainable funding models and strong partnerships between public, private and development actors.
The same lesson applies to agricultural intelligence.
Without trusted data, even the most sophisticated models will generate limited value. Without digital infrastructure, access will remain uneven. Without investment in skills, organisations will struggle to integrate new capabilities into day-to-day decision-making. And without collaboration across the food system, adoption risks remaining fragmented.
For Africa, the prize is not technology for its own sake but an integrated food system that equips farmers, businesses and policymakers to make better decisions in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
History suggests that major advances in agriculture rarely come from a single breakthrough. They emerge when scientific innovation, infrastructure investment and human capability reinforce one another.
As another El Niño gathers strength, the conversation should not focus solely on the weather forecast. It should focus on what governments, businesses and farmers do with that information. In an increasingly volatile operating environment, the ability to anticipate risk and act early may become one of Africa’s most important competitive advantages.
- Zoë Karl-Waithaka is the managing director and partner at BCG Kenya. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.
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