South Africa has ample maize to meet an expected maize shortage in Zimbabwe. Given the economic conditions of the landlocked country, it remains a question whether the country’s grain authorities will manage to secure the half million tonnes of imported maize it needs.
Zimbabwe’s 2022/23 maize production could reach 1,5 million tonnes, almost half of the ample harvest of 2,7 million tonnes in the 2020/21 production season.
Fortunately, South Africa’s 2023/24 marketing year maize surplus of over 3 million tonnes will help meet the potential rise in imports in Zimbabwe, said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).
“From a supply perspective, South Africa is in a relatively strong position,” Sihlobo said.
At least three million tonnes available for export
Recent estimates by the Crop Estimates Committee, indicate that Mzansi’s 2022/23 commercial maize production could reach 16,1 million tonnes. This is a 5% increase from the previous season.
Given South Africa’s annual maize needs are roughly 12 million tonnes; the country could have over 3 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year.
“This ample harvest materialised through farmers’ persistent efforts to plant even beyond the optimal planting window, which closed in December before the entire area of 2,6 million hectares was planted as heavy rainfall disrupted farmers’ activity.
“Thus, farmers planted some hectares outside this window, and some feared there would be poor yields and frost risks later in the season. Fortunately, the worst did not materialize, and South Africa expects an ample harvest,” Sihlobo explained.
Zimbabwe hits a dry spell
However, neighbouring Zimbabwe was not as fortunate as South Africa.
Initially, Zimbabwe’s 2022/23 maize production season had a better start than South Africa’s. The favourable rainfall from October to November allowed farmers to till the land and start planting.
“But the season hit a dry spell in December, adversely affecting the maize crop in the southern and western areas of the country. Zimbabwe’s fortunes worsened when the country was hit by Cyclone Freddy in late January 2023, leading to crop damage,” Sihlobo said.
The expected harvest of 1,5 million tonnes is a mild improvement from the 2021/22 production season’s maize harvest of 1,4 million tonnes but 32% lower than the annual maize needs of 2,2 million tonnes.
Remains to be seen
“At face value, Zimbabwe might have to import about half a million tonnes to fulfil the yearly maize needs in the marketing year 2023/24.”
Sihlobo said given the poor economic conditions in Zimbabwe, he is not sure that the Zimbabwe Grain Marketing Board will procure the half million tonnes strategic reserve in full within the 2023/24 marketing year.
“We will closely monitor the country’s maize import pace in the coming months, as it would lead to a substantial increase in regional maize demand,” he said.
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