As South Africa moves deeper into the 2025/26 summer, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is forecasting a transition to at least a weak La Niña event, signalling a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall in the northeastern parts of the country.
With this wetter summer confirmed, agronomists like Mandisa Mazibuko are advising farmers to adapt fast by implementing water management practices to avoid waterlogging and prevent nutrient wash-away.
According to the Seasonal Climate Watch issued by SAWS, “Most of the areas that receive significant rainfall in the coming summer are situated in the north-east of the country. Most of these areas are expected to receive an above-normal rainfall during the forecast period up until late summer.”
Farmers must therefore adjust their practices to protect their crops from excess moisture.
Managing wet weather challenges
Mazibuko laid out a necessary game plan for immediate action on water management, advising maize and soybean growers to plant on raised ridges and use soil moisture sensors to guide irrigation and prevent waterlogging.
She also stressed the importance of knowing the soil before applying fertiliser, warning that blanket applications waste money and harm the land.
“As a farmer, it is important to know your soil requirements before the selection and application of fertiliser. To save on fertiliser costs and avoid over-fertilisation, which can be detrimental to both the environment and the crop itself, farmers should avoid applying fertiliser using the blanket application method,” Mazibuko advised.
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During heavy rains, split nitrogen doses help prevent nutrients from washing away by applying smaller amounts throughout the growing season. Mixing animal manure with inorganic fertiliser improves soil structure and water retention, enhancing crop resilience in wet conditions.
Mazibuko further emphasised the importance of regular field scouting for pests and diseases, recommending weekly checks or the use of modern technologies to monitor outbreaks.
“Excessive rainfall creates favourable conditions for fungal diseases, which thrive in warm, moist environments, so it is crucial to plan ahead for possible outbreaks,” she said.
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Weather uncertainty challenges farmers
This advice resonates strongly with Mpumalanga maize and wheat farmer, Motshidisi Modise, amid all the weather uncertainty.
“We’ve been noticing changes in the weather patterns, and it’s become increasingly challenging to predict the best planting times. The unbalanced rain patterns we’ve experienced lately have been particularly concerning, with some areas receiving too much rain, while others are experiencing drought-like conditions,” Modise said.
Yet some farmers are taking a different approach this summer. Free State farmer Kyle-Jones Middleton went the other way, planting early to cash in on the rains already arriving.
Middleton noted, “Later planting won’t get the benefit of the good rain we are receiving now. Being early to market has a major effect on the Safex prices. Early planting is expected to yield better, sometimes 1-1.5 tonnes better than late planting.”
To manage risks, Middleton splits his fields evenly and keeps a close eye on weather forecasts, South African Futures Exchange (Safex) market trends, and news updates to spot pricing opportunities and avoid potential pitfalls.
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