Podcast: The impact of local elections on agri communities

The Covid-19 pandemic, large-scale corruption and civil unrest form a particularly bleak background for this year’s local elections, taking place on 1 November 2021. Professor Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, from the University of the Witwatersrand, joins us on this weekend’s podcast episode to discuss some of the issues around the upcoming polls.

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on the lives of everyone in the world. With over 2.9 million cases of the disease identified in South Africa since 2020, the Independent Electoral Commission applied to the Constitutional Court for a postponement of the elections. Van Nieuwkerk says that the court’s decision to decline the application was the correct one to take.

“I think [with the] disunity in the ruling party [during] Covid, many people pushed for an extension, hoping that by next year February or so, some of these problems would have been washed away. But the legal system determined, that by constitutional mandate, the election had to take place before the end of the year.

“I think it was the right decision. Who knows, in February, whether Covid will be back with wave four or wave five, making such an election even more difficult.”

Van Nieuwkerk also says that the service delivery track record of the African National Congress (ANC) will not work in their favour this year. “I suspect that… many people have come to realise that the ruling party, the ANC, is unable to provide goods and services. And it’s unable to prevent large-scale corruption among the ruling elites, so many people will exercise a protest vote. Instead of voting for an opposition party, I think many people will simply decide not to vote. This is a way of punishing the ANC.”

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Independent parties may win support

The smaller, independent parties in the country may be the ones that attract more votes, says Van Nieuwkerk. “People in rural areas as well as urban areas, including farmworkers, would be hesitant to vote for the ANC. They’d rather keep quiet. There might be a charismatic local councillor or ward candidate that attracts votes – that is possible – so these independents might have a better chance because of the weakened ANC.”

Agriculture is a sector more affected by national policy and national elections, says Van Nieuwkerk. But in terms of local service delivery, he foresees that more coalitions will emerge and attempt to manage local affairs after 1 November. “I foresee coalitions of opposition parties attempting… to succeed where the ruling party has dismally failed. So we’re in for a rough ride because coalition politics sometimes also doesn’t work very well.”