For generations, maize has been the backbone of South Africa’s food system. But as hotter temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increasingly erratic rainfall reshape the country’s agricultural heartlands, many producers say growing the staple crop has become an increasingly risky gamble.
Some are replanting fields after seeds fail to germinate in heat-baked soils. Others are planting fewer hectares of maize or switching part of their land to more drought-tolerant crops such as sunflower and soya in an effort to reduce climate-related losses.
Their experiences mirror projections from local climate scientists. Climatologist Francois Engelbrecht has identified southern Africa as one of the world’s climate-change hotspots, warning that the region is warming faster than the global average.
Under high-emissions scenarios, rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves and prolonged droughts could severely reduce the viability of rain-fed maize production unless farmers adapt.
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Rotting seeds and empty fields
For Mpumalanga maize farmer Motshidisi Modise, those changes are already unfolding. “The past five years have definitely been difficult, especially when it comes to drought and poor rainfall, where it has affected yield.
“Without large irrigation to assist with drought, if the drought persists, it will result in loss if we are unable to save the crops,” she said.
Another maize farmer in the Free State, Setjhaba Ramabenyane, echoed these frustrations, noting that unpredictable weather forced him to abandon consistent maize planting a decade ago.
Ramabenyane highlighted a devastating drought two seasons ago. Because he caps his maize planting to under 100 hectares, he managed to avoid a catastrophic financial crash. Still, the volatility has fundamentally altered his passion for the crop.
“I am not really a passionate maize producer, so for me, it has not become a headache as yet. I prefer sunflower, soya, and wheat,” he said.
Direct threat to SA’s food prices
The local threat is deeply rooted in plant biology. According to agronomist and soil scientist Dr Hendrik Smith, localised temperature increases of just 1.5°C to 2.0°C are projected to trigger South African maize yield declines ranging from 15% to more than 40%.
“Harvest unpredictability could spike by up to 25%, a volatility that will directly drive up local grocery store food prices. Rising temperatures pose a severe threat to South Africa’s maize production. Higher heat causes the crop’s growth stages to shorten and dramatically increases evaporation,” Smith explained.
Maize is highly sensitive to heat stress during its flowering, pollination and early grain-filling stages. When temperatures climb above 30°C during these critical windows, the plant’s reproductive systems break down, damaging pollen viability and halting fertilisation altogether.
A prolonged heatwave at this stage can instantly wipe out 80% to 90% of a farmer’s expected yield.
How maize farmers can mitigate and adapt
In 2020, a groundbreaking study by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) revealed that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could cause global maize yields to plummet by 24% by the end of the century, with declines becoming apparent as early as 2030.
To protect the future of food security, farmers can no longer rely on traditional habits. Smith outlined several critical adaptation strategies: focus on adjusted planting times, adapted cultivars, healthy soil and applying regenerative conservation agriculture practices to mitigate the damage.
According to Smith’s research on conservation agriculture, building resilience to climate change begins with improving soil health. Practices such as minimum or no-tillage and maintaining permanent soil cover increase soil organic matter, enabling soils to retain more moisture during prolonged dry spells and heatwaves.
Smith also advocates more diverse crop rotations and the use of drought-tolerant crops to spread climate risk.
Technology is becoming another important adaptation tool. Farmers are increasingly using more accurate weather forecasting and exploring heat-tolerant seed cultivars to improve their chances of maintaining yields in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
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