As political and economic uncertainty swirls out of the United States, South Africa’s agricultural sector is bracing for both shocks and subtle shifts, as Donald Trump’s tariff hikes kick in today, 9 April 2025. Senior agricultural economist at Absa, Dr Marlene Louw, warns that the mounting tariff tensions imposed by the president could have far-reaching implications.
Louw said this political reality has prompted South Africa’s agricultural economists and trade analysts to re-evaluate export strategies and explore scenario planning beyond just the US.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which provides duty-free access to the US for select African countries, including South Africa, has become a focal point.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 of the Absa AgriTrends report.
From Agoa to uncertainty
“The scenarios that we’re exploring are how long can this last? Is there opportunity for exemptions or reductions given that what we essentially exported to the US speaks to food availability and food affordability?” Louw said.
According to Louw, if the US hardens its stance, South Africa’s agri-exporters may be forced to accelerate diplomatic overtures elsewhere, notably to the EU, China, and other Brics nations, potentially reshaping long-standing trade allegiances.
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Citrus, mandarins, and market realities
Louw used citrus exports as an example, pointing to data on orange import gaps that competitors like Chile or Peru would struggle to fill due to their existing US commitments.
“If South Africa were to fall away, there would be a shortage of orange supplies to the US,” Louw explained. South Africa supplies citrus to the US during the off-season months of July to October, mainly exporting oranges and mandarins.
Louw said mandarins showed a more nuanced picture, while Chile was already maximised in its exports to the US and Peru might shift supply from Europe to plug potential US shortfalls, creating a potential opening for South African producers in the EU.
“Each jurisdiction has their preferences in terms of size and count, so there would most probably be a price implication for our producers.
“This speaks to the bigger issue: maintaining international relations is not just about finding markets, but also about understanding their dynamics and preferences. A diplomatic misstep could cost South Africa precious shelf space and long-term brand equity, particularly in sensitive categories like wine. It takes years to build a brand,” Louw said.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 of the Absa AgriTrends report.
While certain sectors may suffer severe setbacks, Louw believes the policy turbulence is just beginning. Louw noted that there may also be an opportunity to redirect South African fruit to the EU.
The Absa AgriTrends Report, now in its fourth year, offers strategic insights for players across the agricultural sector, helping them to navigate a rapidly changing global trading environment.
“In the short term, all stakeholders should leverage their relationships to lobby for reduced levies that are comparable to other Southern Hemisphere agricultural exporters. This is imperative to retain market share for South African products,” he said.
Poultry, pork, and political pressure
According to Louw, in the pork industry scientific disagreements often turn into diplomatic disputes, such as the U.S. practice of not removing lymphatic tissue. In poultry, South Africa is again on the defensive, this time regarding anti-dumping tariffs on US bone-in portions. The US contends their low pricing isn’t dumping but a result of how they value different poultry parts, revealing a deep divergence in trade philosophy.
“Lobbying will be key, but there will also need to be depth in that lobbying. We will need to understand science, the technical aspects of trade law, economics, and market dynamics,” he said.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 of the Absa AgriTrends report.
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