There is concern regarding the maize supplies in the Southern African region for the 2023/24 production season. Agbiz senior economist Wandile Sihlobo said with Zambia, the second-largest maize producer in the area, having declared a drought disaster, there will be heightened pressure on South Africa to meet the maize demands of neighbouring countries.
According to Sihlobo, the issue will be white maize for human consumption in most countries.
“South Africa’s early production forecasts indicate that we, too, have a challenge. For example, the Crop Estimate Committee places South Africa’s 2023/24 white and yellow maize harvest at 7.0 million tonnes (down 17% y/y) and 7.3 million tonnes (down 8% y/y), thus placing the overall maize production estimate at 14.3 million tonnes (down 13% y/y).
Heat and dry conditions a concern
“The challenge for maize is the possible poor yield because of dryness in some regions, as the area plantings are higher than in the 2022/23 season,” he said.
Sihlobo added that the excessive heat and scant rains across South Africa are a significant concern for farmers, particularly in the summer grains and oilseed-producing regions. He said the 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing.
“We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions.
“Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests if there is no widespread rain during these closing days of February into the first week of March,” he added.
Sihlobo said while this expected maize harvest of 14.3 million tonnes was significantly lower than the previous season if it materialises, it would still meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12,00 million tonnes, and the country would remain a net exporter of maize, although a much lower volume than the previous years.
Uncertainty if harvests will be enough
However, he said, if the region struggles with drought, South Africa’s possible small surplus may be too tight to meet regional needs.
“There are also drought concerns in neighbouring countries such as Botswana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
“Still, there is profound uncertainty about the maize harvest size currently in South Africa. The March production forecasts of the Crop Estimate Committee will give us a better picture. For now, we all pay for rain, and the recent Crop Estimates Committee’s data possibly did not factor in the disruption currently caused in recent days by the excessive heat in various regions of the country,” he said.
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