Onion prices have surged to double what they were a year ago, while the potato market prepares for a major seasonal shift and impending cold weather threatens tomato production across South Africa.
According to agricultural economist Conce Moraba in the latest update of GroundRules, produced in collaboration with Agricultural Market Trends (AMT), fresh produce markets are navigating unusual supply delays, volatile weather shifts, and evolving demand patterns.
Onions skyrocket 104% year-on-year
The most dramatic movement on the fresh produce floors remains the onion market, where prices jumped another 15% in a single week to hit an average of R121.93 per 10kg bag.
“Onions have shot up another 15% and are now an extraordinary 104% more expensive than a year ago,” Moraba highlighted, pointing out that total market volumes are currently down 30% year-on-year.
Moraba noted that this upward surge runs directly counter to traditional seasonal trends. “Production from Limpopo and North West should be increasing significantly around now, while the Ceres season is coming to an end. Instead, we’re seeing lower and later volumes coming from Limpopo and North West – and that delayed supply is pushing prices sharply higher.”
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However, Moraba cautioned growers that high prices may not hold once delayed regions step up harvesting. “My expectation remains that volumes should begin increasing. And when they do, those additional onions could bring renewed pressure to prices.”
Potatoes approach September turning point
The average potato price eased slightly to R62.88 per 10kg bag. Sifras traded at R67/10kg, while class 1 large Mondials fetched R75/10kg and mediums averaged R64/10kg.
While harvesting around Douglas and Christiana wrapped up, incoming volumes from Limpopo are not yet large enough to exert downward pressure on prices. Combined with healthy demand, potato prices are expected to remain well-supported in the immediate term.
However, September could mark a pivotal shift.
“Normally, if Limpopo’s crop suffered significant frost damage during July, we’d begin seeing the effect in prices around now, potentially driving prices sharply higher through to October,” Moraba explained. “That didn’t happen this year. So instead of that traditional frost-driven price rally, we could see the opposite: increasing supply and lower prices as September progresses.”
Tomatoes watch weekend weather
Tomato prices gained 7% to reach R6.27/kg despite a 17% week-on-week increase in market volumes. Stronger demand continues to absorb available supply, but upcoming weather patterns represent a major variable.
“Cold and rain are forecast over the weekend. If those conditions reach key production areas and disrupt output, we could potentially see the impact on tomato prices next week or the week after,” Moraba warned, maintaining a short-term outlook of sideways to slightly upward.
Other vegetables market roundup
- Sweet peppers: The overall average price increased 11% to R19.37/kg. Green peppers dropped 1% (R12.86/kg), while yellows surged 30% (R33.03/kg) and reds climbed 29% (R36.36/kg) on declining supply and strong demand.
- Cabbage declined to R2.99/kg
- Sweet potatoes fell to R4.30/kg
- Spinach eased to R3.30/kg.
- Butternut increased 10% to R6.82/kg, while pumpkins strengthened to R3.50/kg
- Green beans declined to R17.79/kg, while cucumbers fell to R13.60/kg
- Garlic price increased to R89.96/kg, with local garlic at R88/kg and imported garlic at R91/kg.
Fruit market overview
South Africa’s fruit market is navigating mixed seasonal dynamics across key categories, led by notable shifts in bananas, pome fruit, and citrus.
Banana prices dipped slightly by 2% to R11.27/kg (around R203 per 18kg box), but limited supply paired with improving demand suggests a price recovery over the coming fortnight.
Meanwhile, pome fruits show encouraging momentum: apples gained 0.5% to reach R9.75/kg and are set to maintain an upward trajectory through year-end, while pears rose 1% to R9.38/kg as they begin entering a stronger upward price cycle.
The citrus and avocado industries present contrasting supply-and-price stories. Oranges softened by 1% to R2.50/kg – a staggering 50% drop compared to last year, driven by massive market volumes that are up 86% year-on-year.
Although orange supply is starting to taper, prices are expected to remain subdued through September before potential relief in October.
In contrast, avocados strengthened 8% to average R17.68/kg, with tightening late-season supply expected to maintain strong price support.
The market dynamic and what it means
Among niche and out-of-season fruit, price volatility remains prominent. Table grapes surged 21% to R76.04/kg as the market relies heavily on imports while local production is out of season, a trend likely to persist until domestic harvests arrive in late November.
Pineapples strengthened slightly to R7.63/kg, while blueberry prices spiked by 30% to hit R64.67/kg.
Summarising the market dynamic, Moraba highlighted a key principle for producers and buyers: “Markets often turn before the headline tells you they’ve turned. Don’t only watch today’s price. Watch for the thing that could change tomorrow’s supply.”
The full GroundRules Fresh Produce Market Update for 17 August 2026 is available in the accompanying video.
For the latest fresh produce prices and market insights, farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group.
AMT provides trusted agricultural market information and analysis through its market database, with GroundRules bringing that insight to audiences in an accessible weekly format.
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