Maize surplus eases feed costs, but fuel and drought threaten gains

South Africa’s record maize harvest is providing some relief to livestock and poultry producers, but the potential return of El Niño conditions, rising fuel costs and other input pressures could limit the extent to which farmers benefit from lower feed prices.

According to the Absa AgriTrends Spring 2026 edition, the maize market is expected to remain adequately supplied for the remainder of the current marketing season, supported by record production and substantial carryover stocks.

This is expected to limit upward price pressure in the near term. However, attention is increasingly shifting towards the 2026/27 production season, where weather-related risks could influence prices.

Bumper harvest delivers temporary supply stability

Anina Hunter, Epol’s feed director, said the record maize harvest had created a favourable local supply-and-demand balance, supporting near-term stability in maize prices.

“Where there is greater availability of a key feed ingredient such as maize, this can help ease input costs for feed manufacturers and, in turn, provide some relief to livestock producers,” Hunter said.

However, she cautioned that lower maize prices do not automatically translate into an equivalent reduction in the price of finished feed.

Feed manufacturers must also account for other raw materials, procurement, manufacturing and logistics costs, while commodity markets remain volatile.

For farmers, this means the maize surplus could provide some breathing room, but it should not be viewed as a guarantee of substantially cheaper feed.

Hunter said feed accounts for about 70% of input costs, making movements in commodities such as maize particularly important to livestock producers.

“When maize and other key raw-material prices are favourable, this can provide some relief to feed costs,” she said, adding that softer commodity prices had contributed to lower feed selling prices during the past financial year.

El Niño projections and fuel costs cloud the outlook

For poultry producer and abattoir owner Jeremiah Jotham, the current maize surplus would ordinarily create expectations of lower feed costs, but the prospect of drought complicates that outlook.

“We have a good surplus, and essentially, if there were no El Niño projections and no indication that we could face a drought, I think we should see a very drastic drop in feed costs,” Jotham said.

However, he noted that farmers may need to secure reserves if drought conditions materialise, while higher fuel prices are adding further pressure to production costs.

“I think there are quite a number of factors that come into play when it comes to the final cost of feed, which obviously the farmer has to bear,” he said.

Jotham expects the maize surplus to prevent a sharp increase in feed prices, but believes costs could either remain around current levels or rise slightly depending on the severity of the drought. He stressed that this was his personal assessment rather than a scientific forecast.

Value-chain integration: A way forward for small-scale producers

Jotham believes greater participation by smaller businesses across the feed and poultry value chain could also help address feed-cost pressures.

He pointed to the potential of integrating poultry production, abattoirs, rendering facilities and feed mills, allowing waste products such as blood from abattoirs to be processed into blood meal for use as a feed ingredient.

“If all the waste that we have from the abattoir goes to the rendering plant, and from the rendering plant to the feed mill, the only thing we then have to buy may be maize,” he explained.

He said this type of value-chain integration could significantly alter production economics for smaller producers. While strong supplies may offer short-term relief, weather risks, fuel costs, other raw materials and broader market volatility will continue to influence the final price paid for feed.