South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa’s 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.
Sihlobo explained that the figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was primarily on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure.
“The current estimate for the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed season is up 30% from the previous season. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
“The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation,” he said.
Good forecast for new production season
A closer look at the data reveals that South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now at 16.32 million tonnes, 27% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.
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“Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, indicating a surplus and continued net maize exports,” Sihlobo said.
He noted that the new 2025-26 production season is just starting and shaping up to be excellent, as farmers intend to plant 4.49 million hectares, up by 1% from the 2024-25 season.
“Overall, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in softer commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
“The focus is now shifting to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains. The farmers also intend to increase area plantings for the new year slightly, and planting activity has started positively in the eastern and central regions of the country,” Sihlobo said.
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