Tomatoes surge, potatoes tighten as fresh produce prices shift

A perfect storm of seasonal transitions, localised weather disruptions, and rising month-end consumer demand is driving volatile price swings across South Africa’s fresh produce markets.

According to agricultural economist Conce Moraba in the latest GroundRules market update produced by Agricultural Market Trends (AMT), short-term supply squeezes are offering firm price support for staple crops like tomatoes and potatoes, while the extraordinarily high onion market may finally be reaching a crucial inflexion point.

“The next two weeks could be far more supportive for fresh produce prices,” Moraba noted. “Better demand is arriving while supply is still tight – and that’s where things get interesting.”

Tomatoes spike 38% as seasonal transition limits supply

The stand-out move of the week belongs to tomatoes, which surged by a massive 38% to reach R8.50/kg as overall market volumes dropped by 19%.

Moraba explained that the price jump stems directly from the agricultural calendar as production shifts out of winter growing areas and into summer regions. This seasonal handover regularly creates a temporary supply gap. Combined with stronger expected month-end buying, prices could climb further in the immediate short term.

However, upside risks remain balanced by localised factors. “The risk remains weaker demand in parts of the informal market. If tomato supply increases again later, that could quickly limit prices,” Moraba cautioned.

Potato supply squeezes tightly across key floors

Potato buyers faced severe availability constraints this past week, pushing the average price up to R67.19 per 10kg bag. Among specific varieties and grades:

Sifras averaged R64 per 10kg.
Class 1 Large Mondials fetched R80 per 10kg.
Medium Mondials stood at R71 per 10kg.

South Africa is currently between major production regions, leaving minimal stock reaching fresh produce floors. The shortfall was severe enough that the Johannesburg Fresh Produce Market sold out entirely early on Monday.

With additional rainfall forecast for Limpopo, which threatens to slow harvesting and transport schedules, alongside stronger month-end demand, potato prices are expected to hold firm over the next two weeks.

Are record onion prices finally reaching a turning point?

Onions remain the most critical commodity to track. While average prices eased slightly to R153.26 per 10kg, they stand at an extraordinary 264% higher than the same period last year, driven by a 34% drop in year-on-year supply.

Earlier wet weather severely restricted planting schedules, creating the ongoing national shortage. However, relief may be on the horizon.

“That shortage now appears to be nearing its end,” Moraba said. “If volumes recover strongly, onion prices could come under pressure quite quickly… This could be the turning point we’ve been waiting for.”

Mixed trends for fruit

In fruit categories, bananas fell 15% to R9.50/kg (approximately R171 per 18kg box) following a volume uptick, though supply is expected to tighten again before year-end.

Apples (R10.47/kg) and pears (R9.46/kg) maintained positive trajectories heading toward the festive season.

Oranges dipped to R2.39/kg – remaining 53% cheaper year-on-year due to high domestic supply and export quality hurdles – but a 20% drop in weekly volume suggests prices may finally begin to recover.

The full GroundRules fresh produce market update for 30 September 2026 is available in the accompanying video.

For the latest fresh produce prices and market insights, farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group.

AMT provides trusted agricultural market information and analysis through its market database, with GroundRules bringing that insight to audiences in an accessible weekly format.