South Africa’s fresh produce markets are a mixed bag of surprises this week. Despite lower potato volumes than in 2024, prices are down, while onions continue their extraordinary run. Meanwhile, on the fruit front, oranges remain 60% cheaper compared to last year.
In the latest GroundRules market update, produced by Agricultural Market Trends (AMT), agricultural economist Conce Moraba breaks down the complex mechanics driving these unexpected shifts across the country’s fresh produce industry.
The primary market puzzle centres on potatoes. While current volumes are even lower than they were at the same point in 2024, a 10kg bag is currently trading at more than R30 cheaper than last year’s highs.
Potatoes: Tight supply, but prices hold steady
National potato prices held steady at R65.87 per 10kg bag this week. In the update, Moraba breaks down by variety and size.
While volumes are hovering near 2024 levels, a period when potatoes were trading above R100 per bag, prices remain significantly lower for two key reasons.
First, producers did not experience the late-July crop damage seen in previous seasons, meaning the market anticipates steady volumes in the pipeline. Second, a large supply of large potatoes is currently available, which is placing downward pressure on other size categories.
According to Moraba, the present shortage appears to be temporary, driven by one production region wrapping up early while another started late. With higher supply anticipated in October, prices are expected to remain fairly sideways in the short term.
Related stories
- Onions hit record highs while general fresh produce prices ease
- Grain markets slide: Temporary pause or start of a downturn?
- Potato turning point ahead as onions double in price year-on-year
- Onion prices surge 21% as banana supply falls sharply
Tomatoes prepare for a bounce
Onions continue their extraordinary run, climbing to R156.70 per 10kg, a 257% year-on-year surge, accompanied by a 42% drop in market volumes.
Wet winter weather restricted early planting, leaving insufficient supply chasing steady demand. Moraba noted that the shortage may be nearing its end, with prices likely to fall as volumes recover.
Meanwhile, tomatoes dropped 15% to R6.16/kg despite a 2% volume rise. As production transitions from winter to summer regions, temporary supply dips could strengthen prices this week.
However, demand weakness in the informal market – which impacts smaller retailers and lower-quality produce – continues to exert downward pressure on the broader market.
Mixed signals across vegetable lines
Carrots plunged 20% to R3.98/kg, though seasonal transitions may offer price support soon.
Sweet peppers dropped 8% to R16.09/kg overall, with green peppers sinking to R10.50/kg, while red (R28.36/kg) and yellow peppers (R32.17/kg) remained higher.
Other notable vegetable movements saw garlic climbing to R106.74/kg and sweet potatoes to R4.32/kg, while butternut held firm at R6.38/kg.
Cabbage and spinach settled at R2.47/kg and R2.52/kg, respectively
Fruit markets: Oranges overwhelmed, bananas retract
Oranges slipped to R2.41/kg – a 60% drop compared to last year.
Moraba said, “The reason is simple: there are a lot of oranges around. Volumes are an enormous 122% higher year-on-year.” Prices are expected to remain muted until supply declines in October.
In contrast, bananas dropped by 11% due to improved supply, though tightening volumes toward year-end should firm up prices. Apples (R10.14/kg) and pears (R9.44/kg) continue to trend upward.
In the subtropical segment, avocados rose 2% to R16.90/kg, while blueberries took a 20% hit to fall to R60.46/kg.
As seasonal transitions take hold, consumer purchasing power remains the ultimate dictator of market direction.
As Moraba puts it: “Today’s shortage sets the price. Tomorrow’s supply sets the direction.”
The full GroundRules fresh produce market update for 22 September 2026 is available in the accompanying video.
For the latest fresh produce prices and market insights, farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group.
AMT provides trusted agricultural market information and analysis through its market database, with GroundRules bringing that insight to audiences in an accessible weekly format.
READ NEXT: Landrace seeds can safeguard SA’s harvests during El Niño
