Most of South Africa is expected to receive below-normal rainfall this spring, a state of affairs that could have a negative impact on the planting of key summer grain crops such as maize.
This is the latest forecast from the South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch, a rolling monthly outlook that scans the horizon five months ahead – in this case, August to December.
The exception is the eastern parts of the country, which are expected to have a wet start to the looming spring before drying out as summer beckons.
“With the start of the spring and early summer seasons, the eastern parts of the country normally start receiving significant rainfall. During early and mid-spring, the eastern and south-eastern areas of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, with most other areas expected to be below normal,” the report reads.
“During the late-spring season, however, most areas of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.”
And minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of South Africa during the spring.
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What this means for you
Spring is about to erupt, and it’s going to be a warm one, so you should soon be able to cast aside your winter wear. Outside of the eastern regions, it’s also shaping up to be a dry spring, with implications for the planting of maize and other grain crops that could feed into food inflation. Many South Africans will welcome a warm spring, but most South Africans aren’t farmers.
Soil moisture levels across much of the grain belt, it must be said, are not bad after unseasonably heavy rains in April and subsequent scattered winter showers. Still, when it comes to grain, planting hinges on the rain.
South Africa’s 2024/25 maize harvest is forecast to be 15.03 million tons, a 17% increase on last season’s crop that was laid low by an El Niño-triggered drought. Domestic consumption is about 12 million tons, so South Africa has enough to meet its own needs with surplus to export – a trend that should help to contain food inflation.
But less rainfall than usual in the spring, combined with expectations of above-normal temperatures, could quickly leave much of the platteland high and dry.
It’s early days yet, and these forecasts are never set rigidly in stone. Next month’s forecast could paint a completely different picture. And thankfully, no global forecast at this stage is predicting a return of El Niño – which typically heralds drought in this region – anytime soon.
- This article was first published by Daily Maverick.
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