Crop estimates for Mzansi’s coming citrus harvests are promising, but outside forces are creating doubt about a smooth export run. One of these forces is the Russia-Ukraine war, which could affect grapefruit growers first.
According to the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), an estimated 14.8 million cartons (17 kg each) of grapefruit will be ready to be exported this season. But with Russia being a major importer of the South African crop, the conflict could have a negative impact on this estimate.
In an interview with Food For Mzansi, Portia Magwaza, CGA’s research economist, said that other forces at play were challenging logistics and increased input costs.
If fuel and shipping costs continued to escalate, fruit that is sent for processing and Class 2 grapefruit will also not be exported, which will further reduce the final export total.
Over the past two seasons, South African grapefruit have gone to Russia as well as the European Union, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, United States, Middle East, Canada, Korea, Southeast Asia, other European and Asian destinations, and a few countries in Africa.
For 2022, exporters are still gauging overseas orders.
“[We] anticipate [a] 4% decline in the exported cartons when compared to 2021. Currently, it is difficult to say if the local or other markets will absorb the potential market loss as the Russian market prefers as precise spec of fruit.”
South Africa exports lemons, grapefruit, mandarins and oranges to Russia and Limpopo is the largest provincial contributor. Local exporters have already reported the negative impact of the war on their supply of early lemon varieties.
Meanwhile, CGA says that the loss of the Ukrainian export market will have a minor impact in South Africa as exporters have only recently started tapping into direct supply opportunities in Ukraine.
This, while Russia annually consumes 7% to 10% of the citrus leaving our ports. Last year, this amounted to about 168 000 tonnes.
In a previous article, CGA CEO Justin Chadwick said that the United States and India were potential markets for the coming season. “This is the only way the growers will be able to offset increasing input costs that are squeezing their profit margins, and for the industry to remain competitive, particularly considering local production expected to grow by another 300 000 tonnes over the next two years.”
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