South Africans may need to brace themselves for higher maize meal prices in the coming months. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, warns that households will “have to take some pain in the near term” as white maize prices remain elevated in early 2025.
As of Friday, 3 January, white maize traded at around R6 871 per tonne, marking a 50% increase compared to last year. This spike is due to a perfect storm of tight supplies, regional droughts, and strong export demand.
Sihlobo explains that South Africa’s white maize stocks are dwindling. “If we keep using about 428 667 tonnes of white maize monthly, we’ll end the marketing year in April with only 277 884 tonnes of maize left,” he says.
This is a drastic drop compared to previous years. In 2023, South Africa had 1.3 million tonnes of white maize in reserve at the end of the season. “It’s a clear sign that our supplies are far tighter now,” Sihlobo adds.
The shortage stems from a tough 2023-24 growing season. “A mid-summer drought in February and March hit most of Southern Africa hard,” says Sihlobo. Zambia lost half its maize crop, and Zimbabwe saw a devastating two-thirds loss.
South Africa, however, fared slightly better thanks to improved farming techniques and biotech seeds. Still, the maize harvest dropped by 23% to 12.7 million tonnes, with just 6 million tonnes being white maize.
Why not just stop exports?
With maize supplies tight, some might wonder why South Africa doesn’t stop exports to prioritise local needs. But Sihlobo warns against this. “Closing exports would harm neighbouring countries that depend on us,” he explains. Zimbabwe, for example, has already imported 788 000 tonnes of South African maize this season.
Plus, restricting exports would discourage farmers from planting more maize in the future. “Remember,” Sihlobo says, “the cure for higher prices is higher prices.”
By keeping the market open, farmers have an incentive to plant more, which can stabilise prices over time.
For Mzansi households, the immediate impact is higher food prices.
“Grain-based foods like maize meal will definitely become more expensive,” Sihlobo says. The price hikes will take a few months to show up at the retail level, but relief isn’t expected until the second quarter of the year.
In the meantime, households may need to explore alternatives like rice, wheat, and potatoes, which have seen stable prices recently.
What’s next for farmers?
However, there’s hope on the horizon, as South African farmers are preparing for the next planting season. “Farmers are optimistic and plan to plant white maize on 1.58 million hectares – slightly more than last year,” says Sihlobo.
However, late and uneven rainfall in some areas has raised concerns about the size of the upcoming harvest. “We’ll need early deliveries from the new crop to ease the pressure, but the weather is still a big question mark.”
Despite the current challenges, Sihlobo notes that South Africa must stick to its current policies. “We need transparent trade data and a stable market. Any drastic changes, like stopping exports, could have serious long-term consequences,” he says.
For now, South Africans will need to ride out this period of high prices, but there’s optimism that better weather and good planning will bring relief in the months ahead.
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