Hotter conditions, prolonged drought and heavier vegetation fuel loads are raising the stakes of wildfire management. As we have seen, when low humidity and strong winds combine with a dry landscape, fires can spread rapidly, burn intensely and overwhelm efforts to contain them.
Globally, climate change and changing land use are worsening the threat of extreme fires. A United Nations Environment Programme assessment projects an increase in extreme fires of up to 30% by 2050.
South Africa faces these pressures alongside water scarcity, invasive alien vegetation and expanding human activities near fire-prone landscapes. Drought can dry vegetation while reducing the water available to fight fires. Woody invaders add substantial fuel, and development exposes more homes, infrastructure and economic assets to potential destruction.
El Niño adds a current concern. The World Meteorological Organization’s October 2026 update reports a strengthening event, which can contribute to hotter, drier conditions in parts of Southern Africa.
Tiaan Pool, head of the forestry department at Nelson Mandela University’s (NMU) cluster for natural resource science and management at George campus, says the scale of the challenge cannot be understood through incident counts alone.
“The number of fires does not tell us enough about the danger. We also need to understand how large they become, how intensely they burn and how difficult they are to control. A changing fire environment demands a changing management response,” Pool said.
More fuel, greater exposure and less room for error
Pool identifies invasive alien vegetation as a significant management concern. Woody species including acacias, pines, eucalyptus and hakea can accumulate substantial biomass, increasing the material available to burn.
Research into the 2017 Knysna fires found that invasive alien vegetation contributed to increased fire severity, illustrating how the condition of a landscape can amplify a disaster.
Changing land use creates further complexity. Forestry plantations and dry crops present different fuel conditions, while settlements beside combustible vegetation place people and property within reach of a spreading fire. Managing these risks requires coordination across property boundaries and sectors.
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SA has structures, but readiness must follow
Fire protection associations help landowners coordinate prevention, training and shared resources. Working on Fire contributes to prevention, suppression and awareness while supporting employment and skills development.
The National Veld and Forest Fire Act provides a framework for fire management, including landowner responsibilities. Nevertheless, Pool believes shortages of resources, uneven implementation and limited understanding of these responsibilities weaken preparedness.
Forecasting and satellite technology provide information that can help managers anticipate difficult conditions. However, a seasonal warning only becomes useful when somebody understands its implications and acts.
“An early warning must lead to an early decision. Managers need to understand what the forecast means for their land, their communities and their resources, then prepare before conditions become dangerous.”
Tiaan Pool
Practical priorities include controlling invasive vegetation, managing hazardous fuel loads, maintaining appropriate protection measures and coordinating response plans. Sound management of wetlands and riparian areas belongs within wider landscape resilience.
Pool also identifies education as a major gap. He argues that wildfire awareness needs greater attention in schools and that relevant tertiary programmes should better equip graduates to interpret warnings and manage risk.
Research must reach the people making decisions
Fire management involves changing biological and physical conditions, alongside human behaviour. Research helps explain these interactions and gives managers a basis for adapting practices.
Pool’s recent involvement in Tanzania’s Southern Highlands demonstrates its practical value. Satellite data helped identify high-risk areas, followed by discussions with villagers about the causes of unwanted fires. The project contributed to regional fire-management bylaws, training and customised village plans. Manuals were translated into Swahili, and villagers learned to manufacture affordable firefighting hand tools.
South African research priorities include protecting settlements beside fire-prone vegetation, improving fire-danger warnings and investigating suppression methods less dependent on scarce water. Understanding how fire regimes may shift across different biomes is also important.
Studying for a changing fire environment
At NMU’s George campus, forestry and conservation programmes incorporate fire management. Pool identifies a fire-management specialisation within the advanced diploma in forestry, risk management at BSc honours level, and wildfire-related master’s and doctoral research opportunities.
Industry relationships help identify practical challenges, with some partnerships providing financial support for applied research. Academic expertise covers both the ecological effects of veldfires and their management.
These pathways are relevant to forestry, conservation and agricultural graduates, working land managers and officials responsible for public preparedness.
“We need more people who can investigate these risks and translate evidence into better management. Remaining agile means continuing to learn as conditions change. The decisions that prevent a disaster need to be made before the fire begins,” Pool said.
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