Demand for cell-cultivated meat is expected to grow significantly by 2025, but does it have a future in Africa? Christa Grobler, a member of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) Scanning team at Stellenbosch Business School, answers the question.
All over the world, the demand for conventional meat and seafood continues to rise and will continue to do so as we approach 2050 and a population beyond 9.5 billion people.
Cell-cultivated meat owes its growing popularity, at least in part, to some of the macro challenges the world faces with food production. Currently, alternative protein makes up just 2% of the animal protein market, but it is expected to increase more than sevenfold by 2025.
A greener alternative
Cellular agriculture is not only a giant leap forward in sustainable meat production but it can also improve the health, socio-economic, and environmental impact of consumer meat products.
Lab-grown, slaughter-free or “cultivated” meat is made by growing muscle tissue from animal stem cells around a scaffold in a nutrient-rich broth. It has been proposed as a kinder and greener alternative to conventional meat because it uses less land, feed, water, and antibiotics than animal farming and removes the need to farm and slaughter livestock, which are major sources of greenhouse gases.
The cultivated meat market could reach $25 billion by 2030, partly because cultivated meat cuts 96% of carbon emissions from the meat-harvesting process compared to traditional methods. Livestock methane gas makes up a significant portion of global emissions.
Entrepreneurs are therefore cultivating fish, meat, and fowl in spite of sceptics who say that lab-grown meat will never be feasible at an industrial scale. Locally, we have two such food tech companies, the Mzansi Meat Company and Mogale Meat, who use cutting-edge research to drive innovation in cell-cultivated meat production in Southern Africa. In April 2022, Mzansi Meat Co made Africa’s first lab-grown burger patty.
Inching closer to the mainstream
In December 2020, lab-grown chicken products hit the shelves in Singapore. During the past five months, US companies Upside Foods and GOOD Meat cleared a significant Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety hurdle. With a thumbs-up from the FDA, these meat alternatives are inching ever closer to the mainstream.
It is not all that miraculous since cultivated meat may not be the climate solution it is claimed to be, nor a miracle food to feed the multitude. Depending on the scenario, cultivated meat can have either a higher or lower impact on the environment than regular farming.
A recent life-cycle assessment by researchers from the University of California found that the global warming potential of cultivated meat, defined as the carbon dioxide equivalents emitted for each kilogram of meat produced, might be four to 25 times higher than for regular beef. For a lower carbon footprint than conventional meats, it is crucial that renewable energy sources are used in their production, including in the supply chain – importantly to produce nutrients and other ingredients needed for the culture medium.
Keeping up with a booming population
Africa’s expanding population is rapidly outstripping our ability to supply affordable nutritious foods. The United Nations estimates food production will need to double in order to feed the nearly 10 billion people expected to populate the planet beyond 2050.
Unfortunately, even in the best-case scenario, cultured meat might be nothing more than an impressive science experiment and a novelty that a small number of wealthy people might eat. Because of the more than trillion-dollar projected costs to achieve industrial scale, it would do little to impact the global market that consists of hundreds of millions of tons of meat per year.
One future of food is making “real” meat in the best and most harm-free way possible. Cultivated meat has the potential to address food security and add nutritional value without further large-scale land-use changes. The fact that lab-grown meat is an energy-consuming process and involves the use of compounds and molecules normally not allowed for livestock, such as growth hormones and antibiotics, is very often overlooked. There is a significant opportunity to develop alternate technologies that reduce the cost and improve the efficiency, quality and texture of cultured meat production at scale.
A research team from the National University of Singapore (NUS) has successfully used common plant proteins to 3D-print an edible cell-culture scaffold, allowing more affordable and sustainable lab-grown meat to be served on the table. As with any technology, costs start high but drop as systems become more efficient.
Hybrid products might be the answer
In five to 10 years there could be price parity between animal meat and cultivated meat, but it will still be a while before the product reaches commercial viability. Even when you can have your steak and eat it, it would have a hefty price tag.
In the meantime, analysts suggest a more viable option might be the introduction of cultured meat to the market as a hybrid product that uses animal cells as well as plant-based proteins, for example, a plant-based patty enriched with 10% cultured meat. These types of products might help drive consumer acceptance, allowing the industry to grow.
- Christa Grobler is a member of the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) Scanning team at Stellenbosch Business School. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.
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