South Africa’s farmers could harvest above-average yields of wheat this winter. If all goes well, this will be a much-needed buffer in terms of supplies with renewed worry about wheat supplies and a potential uptick in prices because of the non-renewal of the Black Sea Grain Deal.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), the recent rains across South Africa have been favourable for the 2023/24 winter crops. The crops are mostly in good condition in the Western Cape, a province accounting for over two-thirds of the winter wheat, barley, canola, and oats plantings.
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Positive forecasts despite heavy rain
“The heavy rains in June in the region, which damaged infrastructure, had a minimal adverse effect on the overall winter crops. Admittedly, certain areas received excessive moisture that may have stunted crops in some fields.
“Still, the broad feedback from various conversations with producers in the province suggests that we could receive above-average yields in winter crops.”
Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo also have good soil moisture from the summer rainfall, which is now beneficial for winter crop growing conditions. Notably, the weather conditions have also been much colder this winter, supporting crop conditions, Sihlobo said.
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Crop estimates
Meanwhile, the winter wheat regions of South Africa have had favourable production conditions so far, and the benefit of all this will be apparent in the crop size, Sihlobo believes.
South Africa will remain a net importer of roughly half of its domestic wheat consumption, a volume of around 1.5 million tonnes. Production estimates might change after the preliminary area estimate of winter crops is released. The data will be released tomorrow, Wednesday, 26 July, by the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC).
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