What a difference a month makes in the world of weather forecasting. Last month, the SA Weather Service remained locked in its view that the early summer over most of South Africa would be drier than usual, raising concerns that planting for the upcoming grain season would get off to a rough start.
But in its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months in advance, the Weather Service sees prospects for a wet start to the summer over much of the grain belt.
“With a potential La Niña event on the horizon to affect the next summer season [there are] early indications of above-normal rainfall over most of the summer rainfall areas during Oct-Nov-Dec.
“The initial outlook is positive for good rainfall in summer,” the report, issued on Thursday, said.
In line with previous forecasts, the outlook still sees “… mostly above-normal [rainfall] countrywide for the forecast period”.
So the crucial start of the planting season for the grain belt, which extends from Mpumalanga to the Free State and North West, is now expected to be warm and wet.
Welcome news
This will be music to the ears of grain farmers after El Niño scorched last season’s crops and holds the promise that domestic food inflation, which has been slowing, will remain contained over the longer term.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee sees production of the staple white maize crop being 25% lower compared to last year, but domestic demand will still be met.
Decent early summer rains will also boost other agricultural sectors such as livestock and will top up dam levels.
In South Africa’s summer rainfall areas, the exception is Limpopo, which is expected to see relatively dry conditions from October to December. September, for most of the country, is still expected to be drier than usual.
The main driver of this overall change in the forecast is the expected return of La Niña, which typically brings good rainfall to this region. It is triggered by a cooling of surface temperatures in the tropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Its polar opposite El Niño – caused by a warming of those surface temperatures – usually brings drought to these parts, and the most recent such event did just that. It had a far harsher impact elsewhere in the region, leaving millions of Zambians, Zimbabweans and Malawians needing food aid.
Known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, this global weather pattern is currently in a neutral phase.
Human-induced climate change is seen by most scientists as making both trends more extreme.
These forecasts are never set in stone and next month’s could change. But for now, it looks like the grain belt and other summer rainfall areas in South Africa should end 2024 on a warm and wet note.
This article was first published by Daily Maverick.
ALSO READ: Umqombothi: Where tradition meets nutrition
Sign up for Mzansi Today: Your daily take on the news and happenings from the agriculture value chain.
