Onion prices surge 21% as banana supply falls sharply

Onion prices surged 21% in just one week, while banana supply is 36% lower than it was a year ago. These are among the key developments highlighted in this week’s GroundRules fresh produce market update, produced by Agricultural Market Trends (AMT) and hosted by agricultural economist Conce Moraba.

Food For Mzansi is proud to announce its partnership as the official media partner of GroundRules, bringing AMT’s trusted agricultural market intelligence and weekly analysis to our audience across the country.

In the latest update, Moraba unpacks the movements across South Africa’s fresh produce markets, using insights from AMT’s agricultural market database to look beyond the headline prices and understand what is driving them.

The timing is particularly important as the market moves into the second half of August, when consumer demand could begin to soften. At the same time, cold conditions last week slowed production in several areas, potentially limiting the impact of weaker demand on some markets.

Potato prices largely stable

The average potato price traded largely sideways last week at R64.79 per 10kg bag.

Sifras averaged R69, while Class 1 Large Mondials reached R78 and Class 1 Medium Mondials strengthened to R64.

Production in the western Free State, Christiana and Douglas areas is expected to continue for another two to three weeks, while the first harvests from Limpopo are beginning to enter the market.

Supply from Limpopo remains relatively low, helping to support prices. However, weaker consumer demand could put some pressure on prices towards the end of the week.

Moraba expects potato prices to soften slightly in the short term, although producers are currently marketing their crop effectively without flooding the market.

Tomato and carrot markets remain under pressure

Tomatoes remain one of the markets Moraba is watching closely.

Prices declined another 7% last week to R6.74/kg, while volumes were 19% lower week-on-week. The reduction in volumes was largely due to the shorter trading week rather than a fundamental change in supply.

If tomato prices continue to follow a similar pattern to last year, they could remain under pressure for at least another month, particularly if temperatures rise as forecast.

Carrots are facing a similar outlook. Prices fell 7% to R4.96/kg, with higher supply and weaker consumer demand expected to keep prices under pressure through August.

Sweet peppers offer a more encouraging picture. The average price increased 1% to R14.91/kg, driven by a 9% increase in green peppers to R13.16/kg. Yellow and red pepper prices declined.

Moraba expects supply to begin tightening, potentially providing support to prices, and has a positive short-term outlook for sweet peppers.

Onion rally comes with a warning

Onions delivered the week’s biggest price move.

The average price jumped 21% to R99.46 per 10kg, with Brown Class 1 Medium onions averaging R114, White Class 1 Mediums R121 and Red Class 1 Mediums reaching R220.

But Moraba cautions against interpreting the increase as the start of a sustained rally.

Larger volumes could reach the market over the next three weeks. If warmer temperatures accelerate production, the additional supply could put prices under renewed pressure.

As a result, despite last week’s dramatic increase, the short-term outlook for onions remains negative.

Banana supply down 36%

The fruit market tells a very different story.

Banana prices increased 8% last week to R11.76/kg, equivalent to approximately R212 for an 18kg box.

The more significant number, however, is the supply figure.

Banana volumes are currently 36% lower than at the same time last year, with significantly fewer bananas reaching the market than during the previous two years.

That reduced supply is providing considerable support to prices, which are now 42% higher year-on-year.

If the lower-supply trend continues, Moraba expects banana prices could strengthen further towards the end of the year.

Apple prices increased 2% to R9.50/kg, while pears gained 1% to R9.80/kg.

Orange prices also improved, increasing 13% to R2.76/kg. However, prices remain 45% lower than a year ago, while volumes are still 64% higher year-on-year.

There are signs that the worst of the season’s orange supply pressure may be behind the market, potentially paving the way for better prices.

Avocados gained another 4% to an average of R18.09/kg, with Fuerte at around R25/kg and Hass at approximately R14/kg.

Table grapes recorded a sharp 23% increase to R87.44/kg as the local season ends, and the market becomes increasingly reliant on imports.

The bigger picture

For Moraba, the key lesson from this week’s market movements is that price alone does not tell the whole story.

A 21% increase in onion prices may look strongly bullish until potential additional supply is considered. Likewise, bananas being 42% more expensive than a year ago takes on a different meaning when supply is 36% lower.

The GroundRules approach is therefore to look beyond the latest price and examine the supply, demand and production factors that could shape the market in the weeks and months ahead.

GroundRules is produced by AMT Agricultural Market Trends and hosted by agricultural economist Conce Moraba. Food For Mzansi is the official media partner, supporting the distribution of the weekly English-language market update to South Africa’s agricultural audience.

The full GroundRules Fresh Produce Market Update for 17 August 2026 is available in the accompanying video.

For the latest fresh produce prices and market insights, farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group.

AMT provides trusted agricultural market information and analysis through its market database, with GroundRules bringing that insight to audiences in an accessible weekly format.