South Africa’s agricultural sector has started 2026 on a strong footing, with rising employment numbers and solid production across key subsectors offering a rare bright spot for the rural economy.
According to renowned agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, farm jobs increased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 960 000 jobs. Employment was also up 1% compared to the final quarter of 2025.
“The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs,” said Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz.
He said the increase was largely driven by favourable production conditions that stretched from 2025 into the start of this year, supported by La Niña-induced rainfall and expanded agricultural activity in several regions.
“The industries that have faced challenges are beef, dairy, and pork producers due to foot-and-mouth disease, and the pork industry due to African swine fever,” he explained.
Job gains in major farming provinces
Despite these setbacks, Sihlobo said most subsectors had enjoyed a productive season, particularly field crops, horticulture and wine.
The provinces recording annual agricultural job growth were the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Free State, North West and Limpopo.
“The job gains in these provinces helped to overshadow the decline registered in other provinces of the country,” he noted.
Recent crop data also points to a strong production season. Figures released by the Crop Estimates Committee at the end of April showed South Africa’s 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed harvest is expected to reach 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year.
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“This yearly improvement in the overall harvest is underpinned by upward revisions to major grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans, and sunflower seed,” said Sihlobo.
Fruit exports have also performed strongly. According to Sihlobo, export volumes in the stone fruit and pome fruit industries rose by 12% year-on-year following a large harvest.
He added that the South African table grape industry also posted encouraging numbers.
“The final figures for the 2025/26 table grape season inspected for export were 81.25 million cartons, a 3% year-on-year increase,” he said.
Vegetable production conditions have remained broadly favourable, helping to support increased activity on farms, while the poultry industry benefited from lower feed costs linked to softer maize and soybean prices.
“Overall, the start of 2026 shows strong job figures in the sector, and much of the year could maintain these generally better job figures, which are well above the sector’s average of 799 000,” Sihlobo said.
Challenges hindering growth
Still, he warned that the outlook beyond this year is becoming increasingly uncertain.
“But going into 2027, there are risks ahead. The higher input costs, fuel and fertiliser, because of the Middle East war, along with expected El Niño drought, are some of the risks that could weigh on the sector and on employment conditions from now on.”
Electricity prices are another growing concern, especially for irrigation-intensive farming regions.
“We also see pressures in the sector from rising electricity prices, which add financial strain to farmers in irrigation regions, which produce all of South Africa’s fruits and vegetables and roughly 20% of the field crops,” said Sihlobo.
While the sector’s current momentum is encouraging, the months ahead may test the resilience of both farmers and the broader agricultural economy.
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