Early preparation essential as super El Niño threatens agriculture

Africa could face a season of punishing heat, drought, flooding and disrupted rainfall as an unusually powerful El Niño gathers strength in the Pacific Ocean.

The latest outlook from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.

It places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.

Senior lecturer in climatology at the North-West University’s (NWU’s) School of Geo- and Spatial Sciences, Dr Henno Havenga, said the term “super El Niño” is widely used but is not a formal scientific classification.

“It describes an exceptionally strong El Niño event. El Niño develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm and the atmospheric circulation above it changes. These changes can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific through what we call teleconnections,” he explained.

What does a stronger El Niño mean?

The strength of the developing event does not mean that every country or region will experience disaster. El Niño shifts the odds, but it does not dictate the weather from one district to the next.

“A very strong El Niño does not guarantee extreme conditions everywhere. Weather variability still plays a major role. It can, however, increase the likelihood or severity of some of the conditions normally associated with El Niño,” Havenga said.

For much of Southern Africa, he added, those conditions include reduced rainfall, drought and unusually high temperatures. Heat compounds the damage because it increases evaporation and the amount of water required by crops, livestock and people at precisely the time when supplies may be declining.

He said even within the same country, rainfall may arrive too late, fall in the wrong places or come in short, destructive bursts rather than the well-timed and evenly distributed rain needed by crops. “The timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall can either amplify or offset the typical El Niño signal at a local level.”

A threat to fields, livelihoods, and households

According to Havenga, agriculture is among the most exposed sectors, but the consequences will extend far beyond the farm gate. Poor harvests can reduce food availability, weaken rural incomes and push prices higher.

“A commercial producer may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation or alternative markets. A small-scale or subsistence farmer may lose both the food needed by the household and the produce normally sold to generate an income,” he warned.

Water security is an equally urgent concern. Hot, dry weather increases demand while reducing the water available in rivers, dams and boreholes. Havenga said local governments cannot afford to lose treated water through leaking and poorly maintained infrastructure during such a period.

“Reducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us. At the same time, all users should be encouraged to use water sparingly as a general rule.”

Support and drought-relief mechanisms needed

An intense El Niño could place health services, energy systems and ecosystems under strain.

Extreme heat poses a particular danger to outdoor workers, older people, children and those living with chronic illnesses. Drought may affect drinking-water quality, sanitation and nutrition, while floods can contaminate water sources and increase the risk of disease.

“We cannot assume that every ecosystem will simply return to its previous state after a severe drought. However, reducing human pressures, including excessive water abstraction, land degradation and unnecessary habitat disturbance, can improve the ability of ecosystems to withstand and recover from the event,” Havenga said.

He emphasised that governments should repair water infrastructure, prepare food-security programmes and ensure that disaster-response systems can be activated quickly.

Havenga urged that financial assistance, agricultural support and drought-relief mechanisms should be designed before farmers and communities are already in distress.

“Drought is a slow-onset hazard. At first, we might not feel its effects, but it develops gradually, and that slow progression can catch us off guard.

“The advantage we have is that advance warning systems have allowed us to talk about this event since May. We should use that warning to reduce our exposure and prepare for the possibility of a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought is already established,” he said.