The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has revised its total export estimate for 2026 downward, following the most recent meetings of its various variety focus groups.
According to the CGA, the original estimate before the season commenced was 209.4 million 15kg cartons. The latest estimate is 205.3 million 15kg cartons.
“The mandarin estimate has been lowered by 2.7 million 15kg cartons relative to the original estimate. Nova and Leanri harvesting has been completed. All regions still packing are now focused on the late mandarin types and packing varieties such as Orri, Nadorcott and Tango.
“The navel orange estimate has been lowered by 4.6 million 15kg cartons from the original estimate in March 2026. Larger navel orange fruit sizes have been reported in the Eastern Cape due to increased rainfall. About 75% of the navel crop has been packed, with less than 6 million cartons of late navels to pack,” CGA said.
Citrus growers face margin squeeze
So far, there have been only marginal adjustments to the Valencia orange estimates. The CGA stated that there is an overall trend of excellent yields per hectare in the northern regions, which has been offset by a lower crop in the Eastern and Western Cape.
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“Orange juice factories are processing considerable volumes of fruit. The Valencia season packing will reach its peak over the next two to three weeks. The expectation is that the season might be somewhat longer than usual.
“The grapefruit estimate has been lowered by 1.7 million 15kg cartons since the original estimate. The Northern regions have completed packing for grapefruit. The Oranje Rivier and KZN areas are drawing to a close. Class 1 and 2 year-to-date volumes are lower than in past years, while fruit destined for processing factories is higher.”
Navigating a challenging season
With the adverse weather patterns across the country, CGA noted that it has been a very challenging season for our growers on a number of fronts.
“Floods in the Western and Eastern Cape have impacted the season. Especially the Patensie region faced significant challenges in this regard. Input costs, market conditions and pricing are equally important factors placing pressure on farm-gate margins.
“Factors beyond our borders have proved consequential. Supplying the Middle East has remained difficult as a result of the ongoing conflict in the region. Traditionally, this region receives approximately 20% of South Africa’s exports,” the CGA said.
Meanwhile, the war has also placed considerable pressure on input and logistics costs, such as diesel and, most notably, shipping rates.
“Transit times were also affected. The conflict’s effects extend well beyond the region, weighing on demand in other markets as well. The potential spread of the conflict to the Red Sea and any disruptions at the Port of Jeddah is a growing concern for shipping routes and for grower options going forward.”
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