Wine industry leaders, stakeholders, and media convened at Endler Hall in Stellenbosch this week to assess the future of South African wine.
Speakers at the South Africa Wine Summit took stock of the economic headwinds, climate realities, and global trends that affect the production and consumption of South African wine daily.
Nicky Weimar, chief economist at Nedbank, the event’s main sponsor, surveyed the positive trends in South Africa’s energy, rail and port infrastructure. She noted that structural and policy reforms have lowered the country’s risk premium, while sound fiscal discipline has led to a welcome sovereign risk rating upgrade.
“National treasury believes fiscal policy will turn a corner this year, with the peak in the debt burden behind us, but this momentum hasn’t quite translated into enough positive growth yet,” she said.
Economic recovery faces global pressures
Despite South Africa’s economic recovery, bolstered by strong consumer spending and a resilient rand, Weimar warned that an interest rate hike seems unavoidable, a prediction realised yesterday when the Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25%.
“Disposable income is the biggest driver of consumer spending, but when diesel prices rise, and inflation goes up, they can drive down consumer spending even up to two years later,” she said.
South Africa Wine CEO Rico Basson provided an overview of the wine industry’s development, drawing lessons from past successes. Amid increased competition from other categories, consumers are drinking less wine and seeking value.
“The industry is not shrinking; it is restructuring around value. Heritage and innovation are not opposites. They are mutually reinforcing,” he said.
On a positive note, Basson revealed that net farm revenue per hectare has improved significantly in 2025. Unfortunately, a combination of waning consumption and oversupply erodes value.
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Basson stressed the importance of aligning with regulation by building on low-alcohol and wine-based innovations, committing to ESG standards as a condition of market access, investing in people as the foundation of a globally competitive industry, and moving from a reactive to an intelligent data ecosystem to drive decision-making, competitiveness and resilience.
The 2026 harvest
Reflecting on the past harvest, Dr Etienne Terblanche, consultation team manager at Vinpro, described a pendulum of extremes: a good winter gave way to drought stress and early véraison, and heatwaves followed heavy downpours in February and March.
He praised proactive growers who adapted quickly to the rapid ripening and disease windows and managed to preserve quality despite a compressed timeline.
“Due to the March heat, sauvignon blanc exhibits fewer characteristic green or herbaceous aromas, instead favouring robust tropical and stone fruit characteristics.
“The early-season drought resulted in notably smaller berries, producing fully developed, concentrated, and complex flavour profiles with excellent structure.”
Dr Etienne Terblanche
Media strategist Priscilla Hennekam talked about consumer behaviour in a new information environment, where the world of wine is moving from a system built on scarcity to one based on abundance.
Where limited knowledge, access, and distribution once protected value, technology has now created abundance. “In a world of abundance, the old logic of scarcity is exposed.
“More information, instant comparison, and visible alternatives make it easier for consumers to replace wine with something else,” she said.
The political economy of wine
Political analyst Dr Mpumelelo Kansas Mkhabela turned the spotlight on the political and regulatory forces influencing South African wine. Declining trust in elections, public institutions, political parties, leadership, and the GNU creates an uncertain policy environment for the industry.
He explained that diplomacy-backed trade deals and agreements have been very effective at unlocking growth and expanding market access and warned against taking them for granted.
“They have to be actively maintained. The rivalry between China and the US is going to influence how products are perceived in different markets. African countries may benefit by positioning themselves strategically,” he said.
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