Climate experts from the Agricultural Research Council have warned Northern Cape farmers to prepare for severe El Niño impacts.
The Northern Cape department of agriculture, environmental affairs, rural development and land reform hosted an online webinar with farmers, researchers, and agricultural and climate experts to raise awareness and suggest strategies to prepare for El Niño in the province.
Johan Malherbe, the senior researcher at the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), explained the South African El Niño process, its impact on the Northern Cape, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast for the province.
Dealing with a long-lasting drought
“In South Africa’s case, we usually have drought conditions during our summer, especially the November to March period. As you can see, that includes the entire summer rainfall region, and the Northern Cape usually sees a negative impact as well.
“Most of the Northern Cape interior, we see about a 50 to 60% chance of below-normal rainfall, up to January next year,” Malherbe said.
Sarah Roffe, a climate researcher at the ARC, highlighted her drought research, explaining that the latest drought started in 2015.
“And we see that it is the longest-lasting drought. And in many areas, this drought lasted roughly 70 months. That is a long time to have reduced rainfall. That is a long time to worry about impact on your livestock and your range land,” she said.
She also explained how drought has affected vegetation patterns and rangelands.
“The pattern of our vegetation varies quite consistently in all of these areas. Particularly when the drought conditions are stronger, we see that the impact on our vegetation and particularly our rangeland is more intense,” Roffe said.
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How dry spells impact planting decisions and livestock
Meanwhile, Gugulethu Zuma Netshiukhwi, an agri-meteorologist and ARC researcher, highlighted the importance of monitoring weather forecasts, growing seasons, early warnings on expected rains and other outlooks before planting decisions.
“This information will assist the farmers to make decisions in terms of which crops or which livestock or breed to adopt in that particular area, and also looking at the crop type, crop varieties, and the planting date.
“Right now, planting everything at one time will not be a good idea, but what is recommended is that the farmers should actually maybe consider adopting sequential or staggered planting,” she said.
She emphasised the difficult decisions livestock farmers face, such as feed and water scarcity during the El Niño event.
“Range management, this one for the parts of the Northern Cape, is very crucial. If the farmer cannot afford to maintain a huge number, we advise and recommend, not instruct.
“We advise and recommend that maybe it will be better to sell a portion of the livestock rather than to keep livestock. When the heatwave comes, we hear of the livestock that has succumbed because of heat stroke, dehydration, parasites, and other diseases,” she cautioned.
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