In 2024, South Africa’s horticultural industry contributed 23% to the country’s agricultural Gross Value Added. With a decade-long average growth of 11.4%, it remains a vital source of employment and foreign exchange.
However, recent years have not been without their challenges, including logistical inefficiencies and high input costs.
Despite these setbacks, 2024 saw a significant rebound in the profitability of long-term export crops, according to the newly released Autumn 2025 edition of Absa’s AgriTrends report. Key factors contributing to this recovery included “agile logistical execution, ongoing market development, and lower volumes out of competing exporting geographies.”
These factors combined with a forecasted improvement in local weather conditions have set the stage for a potentially positive outlook for the industry in the near term, although global geopolitical instability and fluctuating trade conditions introduce uncertainty for the future.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 edition of the Absa AgriTrends report for free.
Mixed outlook for oranges and lemons
In the citrus sector, orange producers experienced a strong revenue year, despite a slight decline in export volumes.
Favourable juice prices, driven by production challenges in Brazil, particularly from disease and drought, allowed South Africa’s orange growers to capitalise, according to Absa’s agricultural economists.
Brazil, historically a dominant player in global citrus production, has seen its output fall to its lowest levels since 1988. However, “the juice market’s rebound could dampen price growth in 2025,” as prices have already dropped nearly 50% from their peak in December 2024.
Lemon exports also saw a mixed performance in 2024. While Spain’s bumper crop at the start of the season initially dampened prices, South African lemon growers benefited from “lower supply out of other Southern Hemisphere exporters,” especially Argentina, where persistent rainfall hindered production.
“For the start of 2025, EU volumes were also lower by around 4%, mainly due to lower volumes from Spain,” providing an opportunity for South African producers to capture market share with early lemons.
Strong table grape performance
Table grape production also showed promising results for the 2024/25 season, with Northern and Orange River growers benefiting from high prices in the EU and other Northern Hemisphere markets, driven by weather-related challenges in the EU and California.
However, “changes in marketing patterns are becoming apparent,” particularly with China shifting from being a net importer to a net exporter. This shift, combined with China’s push to develop competitive grape varieties, could impact South Africa’s position in key export market in the coming years.
Despite these hurdles, “South African quality and volumes out of the Western Cape performed well,” with growers benefiting from favourable weather conditions during production and harvesting.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 edition of the Absa AgriTrends report for free.
Avocados: Favourable outlook amid supply shifts
South African avocado exports performed well in 2024, largely due to reduced volumes from Peru. “With lower Peruvian volumes, early South African avocados found a strong market in the EU and UK,” according to AgriTrends.
However, “the Peruvian avocado market is expected to recover in 2025,” with market developments focusing on the US, where the country has historically enjoyed success. Additionally, “the inauguration of the Chancay mega-port in November 2024 could provide Peru with a competitive edge in accessing the Far East market, including China.”
Macadamias: Uncertainty amid challenges
In the macadamia sector, South Africa’s 2025 crop is expected to see a 7.11% increase, reaching approximately 93,433 tons. However, “the uncertain economic outlook in China and slower contracting for Nut In Shell (NIS) have contributed to uncertainty at start to the marketing season.”
The uncertainty is compounded by the increasing production of macadamias in China, which could “weigh on NIS prospects” for South African growers.
Despite these challenges, the market for macadamia kernels remains favourable, especially for higher-quality varieties.
Analysts anticipate that, “market development in terms of ingredients and geographies will continue to support price improvement, although the potential for a marketing split between kernels and NIS could limit price growth.”
The South African horticultural export industry finds itself at a crossroads. While several crops have enjoyed favourable conditions, global market volatility and shifting trade dynamics present risks.
For industry stakeholders, the outlook remains optimistic, with key opportunities and challenges ahead.
