SA citrus industry eyes record season amid global headwinds

As the citrus export season approaches, the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has released its export estimates. The figures reflect the expected volume of citrus available for export, and the estimates point to continued growth in the industry.

Although late Mandarin estimates are only expected in a month’s time, should the historic trajectory within this Mandarin category be taken into account, the total citrus exports across all varieties is expected to increase by approximately 3% to 5%, reaching a total of between 210 – 215 million 15kg cartons.

Chief executive officer of CGA, Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, said they are acutely aware of the uncertainties the industry faces with the current war in the Middle East’s potential effect on demand, shipping, fuel availability, and input costs. However, should all that is possible be done to limit the impact of these factors, steady growth towards another record export season is within reach.

“The CGA has invested significantly in its data and market intelligence capacity, as well as specialist monitoring and review forums to make timeous adjustments to estimates and support key stakeholders with capacity planning in the logistics chain to help ensure a stable supply to the markets.

“The global environment impacting the season will likely mean that everyone will need to be highly responsive and adaptable, but we have weathered such large challenges in the past,” he said.

On track for long-term growth

According to the CGA, the breakdown of variety estimates indicates a balanced crop for 2026, with fruit of high quality, 45.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons can be exported to key markets, which represents a 10% increase from last year’s exported figure of 41.6 million 15kg cartons.

The increase in lemon exports is due to a significant number of young trees coming into production in the Sundays River Valley, as well as the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) region’s recovery from hail damage in past seasons.

Predictions show a figure of 30 million 15kg cartons for Navel oranges, a 5% reduction on 2025’s record exports. It is still, however, in line with the long-term growth trajectory, being a 10% increase on 2024 volumes.

The Navel category is also separated into early/midseason Navels (13.4 million cartons) and late Navels (16.6 million cartons).

“The Valencia orange export crop increases 1.6% from last year’s 62 million 15kg cartons to a figure of 63 million cartons for 2026. It is important to note that last year saw an exceptional increase in Valencia volumes in practically all regions due to optimal growing conditions. In the current season, yields are expected to normalise, although regional differences need to be taken into account.

“Favourable weather in the northern regions underpins increased estimates of between 4 and 17% above 2025 volumes; the floods that occurred in January did not cause significant damage to orchards or affect yields.

“Meanwhile the southern growing regions in the Eastern and Western Cape expect lower Valencia production this year (between 7% and 20% down; however, still an increase on the 2024 season) largely as a result of drier conditions over the summer and the natural occurrence of alternate bearing in citrus orchards,” the CGA stated.

Challenges hampering citrus exports

Ntshabele said considering the global instability, it is essential that attention be given to factors which are within South Africa’s control and can unlock the potential of the country’s citrus exports.

“A number of constraints can be addressed to secure the future growth of our industry. Enhanced market access to China, India and the United States would provide a meaningful boost to the industry.

“The European Union’s unnecessary and unscientific plant health requirements for South African citrus is also a constraint and remains unresolved. Improved logistics efficiency, especially in the rail network, will require greater participation from the private sector,” he said.