Shifting seasons ahead: Brace for more extreme weather

While the country has experienced unfamiliar weather conditions over the past few months, climate scientist at the University of Cape Town, Dr Peter Johnson, said they are becoming more frequent due to shifting climate patterns. He advised farmers to prepare for more variable and extreme weather in the coming years.

He said long-term climate change will alter seasonal patterns, making it essential for farmers to adapt. According to Johnson, farmers must closely monitor weather forecasts, especially during El Niño and La Niña events which significantly impact rainfall and temperature patterns.

Johnston advised farmers to adopt flexible practices, like adjusting crop types based on seasonal forecasts, and to focus on resilience. He shared his insights with Food For Mzansi.

Patricia Tembo: What is happening with the weather patterns in South Africa?

Dr Peter Johnston: We’ve seen the rainfall patterns become more variable and we’ve seen more extreme rainfall. These are indications that something is happening to the climate. We want to make farmers aware that there are going to be changes to the average weather. Seasons are going to be different in the future.

In the coming 20 to 30 years, there are going to be different characteristics of those seasons. That’s the real difference. Every season is different from the next one. In the short term, we can have extreme events. Weather like we just had, extreme temperatures resulting in the snow, is unusual but not unheard of. In the long term, we can expect the average climate to be different. We might have to adapt to this.

What do extreme weather events, like the recent snowstorm, indicate?

I can’t say specifically that these recent events, the floods and snow, are because of climate change but we are certainly expecting more extreme events. An extreme event is one where rainfall, snow, or temperature is well beyond the range of averages. This is something that only occurs once in a very long time.

So normally you might say that the snow in KwaZulu-Natal is a one-in-20-year event. It has happened before and it will happen again. It’s certainly something that we need to be more prepared for in the future.

Which recent events in South Africa have been influenced by climate change?

We can’t attribute certain extreme events to the effect of climate change, except to say climate change is making events like these more frequent. We can’t say climate change is somewhere specific. All we can say is that the climate is changing. The frequency of extreme events is a direct consequence of climate change. It’s quite a bit beyond the actual variability that we can capture.

What can be expected in terms of the climate for the rest of the year in South Africa?

The rest of the year is meaningless in terms of climate change. Though we do know that the major contributors to different sorts of extreme events in South Africa are the El Niño and La Niña. These are heating or cooling events that have the potential to cause a lot of outside flow. When they do occur, the rainfall patterns and the temperature patterns are different from what we would call normal.

In the seasonal forecast this year, we are seeing that there’s some indication that it will start to dry in December. A wet December is not a guarantee at all.

As the temperature is increasing, the forecast is saying it’s definitely going to be a hot summer. I expect the late summer to be slightly wetter than normal, which of course is good news for grain farmers.

However, every year is different, and every region is different. We don’t expect the same amount of rainfall for the regions. Highly vulnerable areas like Limpopo are very susceptible to very dry conditions during El Niño so we have to watch the weather carefully.

We have to advise farmers to listen to the overall season forecast and make sure they follow that up with a weekly or 10-day weather forecast, which will then give some indication of the most immediate future weather.

What adaptive practices can you advise farmers to adopt for extreme weather events?

Firstly, you have to try and determine if you specifically are vulnerable to these extreme events. Some farmers are quite susceptible. They sort of only plant when it rains, and if they’ve got irrigation, they’re lucky. Others are really, really dependent on rain. It is a bit of a gamble. Even if you get normal rainfall, falling at the right time, you might still be stuck.

In terms of drought, we often say that livestock must be sold. You can’t support livestock during the drought. If you sell the livestock and put the money in the bank, then at least the money is earning some interest. If you’re not producing that money, where’s your livestock? It may die during the drought.

It’s all about the clinical risk, the clinical probability, and trying to see how you can reduce your probability. We call that resilience. We try to encourage farmers to be more resilient.

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