Minimal government intervention in agricultural markets is often considered an ideal policy path, as government intervention may disrupt the efficient allocation of scarce resources or functioning of the market (through the forces of supply and demand).
In times of abundant harvests, farmers and agribusinesses must be allowed to export and benefit from the global market. In times of droughts or floods, trade must still be allowed. Indeed, there may be short-term economic pain for consumers through higher prices in deficit years when imports are needed, but this induces farmers to plant more in the coming seasons.
At times, governments ban imports to protect local farmers when they have ample domestic supplies, which are deemed sufficient to meet consumer requirements. However, that also limits the consumer’s choice and artificially increases the domestic price by restricting more competitively priced imports.
Zimbabwe’s maize supply recovers
I am highlighting these policy tradeoffs due to recent news from Zimbabwe. A report by Reuters, a news organisation, suggests that the Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports.
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Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for the year or will need imports later. Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season, which was a drought period.
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This recovery in Zimbabwe’s maize production is primarily driven by improved weather conditions and an increase in the area that farmers managed to plant for maize. If this production level materialises, then the ban may be temporary.
Zimbabwe’s potential maize harvest of 1.3 million tonnes will not be sufficient to meet the country’s domestic needs of 2.0 million tonnes per annum, leaving it to import the balance.
Surplus expected in SA maize production
In the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports. However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia regaining its net exporter status as it expects a bumper harvest of 3.66 million tonnes. This far surpasses Zambia’s maize consumption of 2.8 million tonnes per annum.
South Africa also forecasts a robust maize harvest of 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the previous 2023-24 season’s crop. These forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
For South African maize exporters, the message here is that Zimbabwe may not be the ideal market in the near term, as they have ample domestic supplies. However, later in the season, they may return to the market and import. The USDA forecasts suggest that the expected crop is insufficient to last throughout the year.
- Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa
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