The livestock sector experienced pressures in 2024, with beef prices staying mostly flat, while pork and poultry markets grappled with their own set of challenges. But 2025 is poised for a fresh start, with exciting opportunities on the horizon for recovery and growth as market dynamics shift.
According to the Autumn 2025 edition of Absa’s AgriTrends report, beef prices remained stable throughout 2024. This stability was partly due to initial improvements in demand, offset by higher supply underpinned by ongoing dry conditions.
Despite expectations for an earlier price rebound, Absa analysts believe that the beef market will see a more gradual improvement as 2025 progresses.
“Demand recovery and herd rebuilding, both locally and in neighbouring countries, are expected to provide scope for further price increases in the medium term,” says the AgriTrends report.
A key factor in this recovery is the positive outlook for household expenditure, driven by lower interest rates and lower fuel prices. There has been solid growth in semi-durable goods, often a leading indicator to higher demand for beef products.
Recent statistics support this view, with weaner calf prices gaining momentum in late 2024, underpinned by lower maize prices. The medium-term outlook predicts a modest upward trend in beef prices, driven by improved local demand growth, export growth, and normalising supply conditions.
Click here to download the Autumn 2025 edition of the Absa AgriTrends report for free.
Lamb and mutton: Export growth and price pressure
The lamb and mutton sector has experienced substantial export growth over the past eight years, although local prices faced pressure in 2024.
Despite increasing exports, global ovine prices came under pressure, particularly due to record slaughter and export volumes from Australia. South Africa’s lamb and mutton slaughter numbers grew by 11% between 2023 and 2024, further limiting price growth.
Analysts confirm that they’ve seen some pressure on local prices, trading close to 2020 levels, as higher supply and pressure on export volumes limited potential price growth.
Looking ahead to 2025, they expect prices to recover as global prices rise and local slaughtering contracts. Risks such as stock theft and dry conditions in key production areas remain significant factors affecting the prospects for this industry.
Pork: Stable prices amid supply adjustments
The pork sector faced its own set of challenges in 2024, with high feed costs and variable demand influencing prices. Slaughter numbers increased by 20% between 2019 and 2024, while GDP growth stagnated at just 1.65% for the corresponding period, creating pressure on profitability. Prices stabilised at around R32.20 per kilogram in 2024, thanks to an increase in supply and improving consumer demand.
Higher slaughter numbers indicate a degree of herd liquidation in response to profitability pressures, but a slower supply growth in 2025 should support prices, the AgriTrends reports noted.
In the longer term, price recovery is expected in 2025. Profitability will also be bolstered by a likely reduction in yellow maize prices, which will help improve profitability.
Poultry: Recovery from Avian Influenza
The South African poultry industry remains on the path to recovery from the 2023 outbreak of avian influenza. While the supply shock caused by culling affected both meat and egg markets, poultry prices have stabilised. The global impact of avian influenza continues to be felt, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, where major outbreaks have led to record-high egg prices. This highlights that risks for disease disruptions remain.
With input prices still high, producer margins remain under pressure. However, easing feed prices are expected to improve profit margins in 2025, potentially stimulating production and helping stabilise prices in the medium term.
Looking ahead: Opportunities and risks
As the South African livestock sector adjusts to changing market conditions, several factors will influence future pricing. Analysts are optimistic about the prospects for beef, pork, and lamb, with modest price increases expected in 2025.
However, challenges remain, including global market dynamics, local environmental conditions, and industry-specific risks such as disease outbreaks.
With improved consumer income, a more favorable global environment, and lower input costs, 2025 may bring much-needed relief for consumers and producers alike across the South African livestock sector.
